Mislim da može ‘omastit’ brk….

Slazem se Sangi. Danas sam imao par PP na tu temu. Lani u ovo vrijeme vodeca ekipa JDPL je trljala ruke sa 25000 dnevno. Svi su govorili puna saka brade. Danas smo na 50000. Ove sitne oscilacije su mozda signal da smo na vrhu ali po onom sta citam nikakve naznake o silaznoj putanji nema. Osobno sam misljenja da ce mo vidjeti jos ATH na BDI.

Što se dešavalo u 8 mjesecu

Dry Bulk Market Highlights
August 2007
Release Date: August 2007 | Next Release: September 2007
So much for the dog-days of summer! While August has traditionally been marked by a seasonal slowdown in trade activity and sluggish freight rates, that was certainly not the case this year. Instead, freight rates continued on their gravity-defying run, shattering records along the way. The Baltic Dry Index rose by nearly 10% over the course of the month.

Once again, Cape rates saw that most spectacular gains, with the Baltic Cape TC Index climbing from an already-high $100,000 per day in late July to an amazing $127,000 per day by the end of August.

Handymax rates also soared to a new record-high by the end of August. The Baltic Supramax TC Index has increased steadily over the past two months, climbing from $49,000 per day to $52,000 per day over the course of August.

Meanwhile, the Panamax sector remained firm as well, holding to the dramatic gains it registered in July. On our benchmark USG/Japan grain route, spot rates held above $90 per tonne throughout August, and the Baltic Panamax TC Index edged up from $59,000 per day in late July to just over $60,000 per day by late August.

As dry bulk spot rates zoomed upwards in August, so did period charter activity. After averaging 30 fixtures per month during 2006 and the first half of 2007, more than 60 fixtures of at least a year’s duration were reported in August. And rates for a one-year time charter closely tracked spot rates, moving up by 10-20% in just the past month. Cape rates topped $100,000 per day, while Panamax rates approached $60,000 per day, and Supramax rates reached $50,000 per day.

Dry bulk asset values have also risen sharply in recent months, with newbuilding prices generally up by 20-30% since the end of 2006, and secondhand prices up by more than 50%.

The iron ore, steam coal, and steel product trades have been the key drivers of dry bulk demand so far this year, though demand also received a boost in the second quarter from a relatively strong seasonal increase in South American grain exports.

Preliminary indicators continue to point to a combination of port delays and strong Chinese trade demand growth as the key factors driving the dry bulk market to new heights.

Although Chinese steel production growth has slowed a bit recently, Chinese iron ore imports were especially strong in July, totaling 34 million tonnes, or an annualized pace of just over 400 million tonnes. And there was a marked shift towards longer-haul shipments during the month, with Brazil supplying 30% of Chinese iron ore imports during July, up from 24% in the first half of the year. In contrast, India supplied just 18% of Chinese imports in July, down from 24% in the first half of 2007. This points to an enormous shift in tonne-mile demand, which has undoubtedly contributed to the recent boom in freight rates.

However, some of the strength derived from Chinese iron ore imports was offset by developments regarding Chinese coal imports. Although Chinese steam coal imports had been growing at a rapid pace in the first half of 2007, these imports slowed significantly in July, while Chinese coal exports reversed their recent decline and moved higher. A change in the relationship between coal prices in the domestic market and in the international market was seen as the main factor behind the shift in Chinese coal trade, but we believe this shift is likely to be temporary. It’s also worth noting that coal imports into other countries, notably Japan and South Korea, increased in July, offsetting the decline in Chinese imports and keeping the global coal trade at a high level.

Meanwhile, port congestion has remained extremely high over the past month, especially in Newcastle and Dalrymple Bay in Australia. Weather-related problems at Newcastle have kept the delays close to 20 days there, with the vessel queue estimated at roughly 50 ships during most of August. In addition, delays have been reported at Brazilian loading ports and at Chinese discharge ports, as the high volume of trade activity continues to stress the global logistics chain.

One potentially negative factor which has so far been shrugged off by the market is fleet growth. Dry bulk deliveries accelerated during August, leading to fleet growth in excess of 2 million dwt during the month. So far this year, the fleet has been growing at an annualized pace of 6.5% but this has not been enough to keep freight rates in check. Of course, the dry bulk orderbook has continued to skyrocket, and now represents well over 40% of the existing fleet, with the Cape orderbook approaching a stunningly high 65%!

Kao što je kolega Ententinis napomenuo, Uprava je dobila nekoliko stotina komada za nagradu pa je Ante dodao još 500-injak komada i eto ti tisućice. [smiley2]

Inače, kada je Jerković prošli puta prodao 1.000 komada, a to je bilo početkom svibnja ove godine pri cijeni od 1.500 kn, cijena je naredna 4 mjeseca skočila na povijesnih 2.700 kn što je nekih 80% plusa.

Analogno tome, nakon ovotjedne Jerkovićeve prodaje na 2.700 kn, cijena bi do sredine siječnja (4 mjeseca) trebala biti na 2.700 kn + 80% = 4.860 kn.

Logično, zar ne? [smiley2]

Ne može biti logičnije kolega Strawinsky.
[smiley2]
Samo da dodam da me baš zanima gdje je tih tisuću komada završilo.
Mislim da ćemo ih vidjeti uskoro kod nekog iz Top 10

Kolega uvijek su mi se sviđale vaši izračuni. Inače čujem da kupuje nekakvu brodinu za privatne svrhe.

vorda, pa prodaj onda te dionice ili ih nemoj kupiti (ako ih nemas)….eto ja to sutra cinim[smiley1]

Evo nam malo za usporedbu koliko su porasli brodari na američkim burzama zadnja 4 (četiri) tjedna:

Strawinskiy, mislim da bi bilo bolje da na neki americki forum stavis informacije o nasim brodarima, sta sve imaju i koliko im je cijena porasla, ali od pocetka godine.

A kolko su naše?