kineze svrbe stopala&novčanici….

Chinese rush to import iron ore before price rise
Tuesday, 11.03.2008, 12:22am (GMT)

China’s iron ore imports rose to a record 38.2 million tonnes in February, 4 percent above the previous peak in January, as steel mills and merchants bought before higher benchmark prices kick in. Major steel mills in Japan, South Korea, Europe and China, including China’s largest producer Baosteel Group, agreed with Brazil’s mining giant Vale to a 65 percent rise in iron ore prices for the fiscal year beginning in April.
The latest import figure, up 33 percent from the same month last year, also reflected an easing of port congestion, which some analysts had said would reduce iron ore shipments to China in the first quarter from Australian and Brazilian miners.
“Chinese steel mills and merchants imported aggressively in anticipation of a jump in raw material prices in the months ahead,” said Shanghai-based analyst Helen Lau at Daiwa Securities.
However, the worst winter weather in decades in southern and central China early this year slowed transportation and damaged power networks, disrupting logistics and leaving a huge stockpile of iron ore in major ports and steelmakers’ warehouses.
Iron ore inventories in port warehouses in China, the world’s largest steel maker, reached nearly 60 million tonnes in late February compared with 48 million tonnes in mid-January, an executive at the China Iron and Steel Association said.
STEEL EXPORT TO REBOUND
“The rise in iron ore imports does not reflect a rapid increase in demand at Chinese steel mills, but instead shows eagerness in the market to secure sales volumes and lock in prices before the new price is implemented,” he said.
Steel mills including Baosteel Group, parent of Baoshan Iron and Steel, are still in iron ore price negotiations with Australian miners, who traders said are believed to be seeking increases above Vale’s 65 percent.
The severe winter weather, combined with China’s Lunar New Year holiday, drove down China’s steel product exports in February by 33 percent on the month to 3.11 million tonnes, customs data showed on Monday.
The decrease was also partly due to increases in export taxes for steel billet and products since the beginning of the year.
China’s net steel product exports are set to drop by 20 percent in 2008 while net exports of steel billet would drop by 50 percent, an executive at the China Iron and Steel Association said early this year.
China’s crude steel production is forecast at 540 million tonnes in 2008, up about 10 percent from 2007, industry officials have said.
Analysts believe China’s steel product exports will rebound in March to their January level, however, as transportation returns to normal after the national holidays.
Moreover, they said rising steel prices in the overseas market had been offsetting losses in profit due to increased export taxes, encouraging traders to ship more.
“Solid overseas demand is supporting Chinese steel exports, despite some concerns over an economic recession in the U.S,” said analyst Henry Liu at Macquarie Bank.
“We should check the breakdown of the trade data for the destinations of exported steel, but my feeling is that purchases from emerging markets such as the Middle East could counterbalance losses in the U.S.,” he said.[thumbsup]

DRYSHIPS INC.(NasdaqGS: DRYS)
63.00 +2.60 (+4.30%) as of 8:31AM ET on 03/11/08

@ 12m12 i kukumar:
ovdje ce se sve reci, a ja otprilike znam i sto….

NEW YORK, NY–(MARKET WIRE)–Mar 3, 2008 — Twenty listed company CEOs and CFOs, as well as several analysts, will participate in the panels or make presentations at The 2nd Annual Capital Link Forum “Invest in International Shipping” that will take place on Thursday, March 20, 2008 in New York City at the Metropolitan Club
— Capital Product Partners L.P. (NasdaqGM:CPLP – News)
— D’amico International Shipping S.A. (Borsa Italiana: DIS)
— Danaos Corporation (NYSE:DAC – News)
— DryShips Inc.(NasdaqGS:DRYS – News)
— Euroseas Ltd (NasdaqGS:ESEA – News)
— Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd. (NYSE:EXM – News)
— Global Oceanic Carriers Limited (AIM: GOC)
— Globus Maritime Ltd. (LSE:GLBS.L – News)
— Goldenport Holdings Inc. (LSE:GPRT.L – News)
— Hellenic Carriers Limited (AIM: HCL)
— Navios Maritime Holdings Inc. (NYSE:NM – News)
— Navios Maritime Partners L.P. (NYSE:NMM – News)
— OceanFreight, Inc. (NasdaqGM:OCNF – News)
— Ocean Tankers Holdings (CYPRUS: OCT)
— Omega Navigation Enterprises (NasdaqGM:ONAV – News)
— Star Bulk Carriers Corp. (NasdaqGM:SBLK – News)
— TBS International Limited (NasdaqGS:TBSI – News)
— Top Ships Inc. (NasdaqGS:TOPS – News)
— Tsakos Energy Navigation LTD (NYSE:TNP – News)

frisko stanje….

Neka je nervoza zavladala forumom.. ajde bice sve dobro [cool] Koliki nam je BDI danas?

još kad bi nam pristao i odati što [wink]

pa rizici uvijek postoje. ali preveliki supply brodova je jedini ozbiljni srednjoročni – ma i dugoročni – koji se meni čini ozbiljan.

mogu prihvatiti da netko argumentira da bi rizik bila i dugotrajna američka recesija, recimo da potraje tamo do 2010/11. osobno mislim da čak ni takva recesija ne bi bitno utjecala na ritam izgradnje u aziji, ali shvaćam da bi se moglo biti oprezan oko toga.

a mislim i da je run u brodare u americi prošlih tjedana bio velik i jako spekulativan jer je sve drugo padalo pa su zato i dionice postale zadnjih deset dana malo volatilnije od ionako hipervolatilnih tržišta. vjerojatno je puno ljudi ušlo koji ne znaju ni zašto raste ni zašto pada, samo su znali da je tog časa bilo jedino što raste, a sad su vidjeli da i to pada.

bdi down by 64 na 8560

eh sad nije isto da li si onaj s nalogom za 1 ili za 45. ali bolje nam nemoj previše odavati da se ne pretvori i ova dionica u drys [cool]

ni meni po svemu što čujem nije vjerojatno da bi na kraju zaista moglo biti oversupplya, ali od svih rizika koji se navode to mi je jedini koji ima smisla. ovo drugo o čemu inače pišu kad sumnjaju u budućnost nema mi puno smisla. zapravo fali mi da čujem neki REALISTIČNI loši scenarij za budućnost osim tih tipa “kina će prestati uvoziti rudu jer će joj rast pasti na 9 ili 10%” ili “nafta je skupa a brodovi moraju ploviti brzo”.

Zar ti to što si napisao ne izgleda nelogičnim ?
Panamax star 20 godina ovih se dana može prodati po cca 45 mil USD , a ti tvrdiš da u rezalište (nakon 30-ak godina) ide za 50 !!??
Mislim da si pobrkao mjerne jedinice kod Demolition Assessmenta – raportirana brojka je USD/LDT (Light Displacement Tonne) , a da dobiješ USD/DWT trebaš je podijeliti čini mi se sa cca 4,4.To bi značilo da se ovisno o regiji (Kina 330, subc.550) za takav panamax sada može dobiti od 5 do 9 mil USD.

Brodarski stručnjaci , pomagajte !