[/quote]

Najviše je protrženo od 30 do 60 kn. Tko kaže da se neće pšonoviti?
[/quote]

mislim da nismo mi te sreće 🙂

http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/ATHREPMAR15.pdf

Opet promjene u prvih 10. Friško.

Odlican clanak….ovi su inace vrlo konzervativni..

Pacific Basin Sees Dry Bulk Glut Continuing

Pacific Basin Sees Dry Bulk Glut Continuing

Ovaj dio mi je posebno zanimljiv:
On the vessel supply side, scrapping in the year to date has significantly increased to an annualised 5% of the existing dry bulk fleet (from 2% in 2014), which is expected in such a weak freight market.

Many ship owners are negotiating with shipyards to delay, cancel and convert their dry bulk newbuilding orders. Consequently, there has been no net growth in the global dry bulk fleet since the end of January. Annualised dry bulk new ship ordering in the first two months of the year fell to the lowest on record at about 0.4% of existing capacity.

Newbuilding deliveries across all ship types in 2014 are reported by Clarksons to have reduced to 5% of global capacity – the lowest rate in 15 years – and the company also sees encouraging signs in a 43% decline in a number of dry bulk ships delivered by Chinese shipyards between 2012 and 2014. The number of Chinese yards delivering Handysize ships reduced by 61% in the same period.

Dobra makro ekonomska analiza
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3048836-dry-bulk-shipping-market-macro-update

Conclusion

A recent recovery in rates has many in the drybulk sector hopeful. Scrapping activity is accelerating, and newbuilds appear to be in check, resulting in a thinning orderbook. The bottom may be in for now, but it will take quite some time to recover. However, a transitioning Chinese economy might not be able to provide the support to the drybulk community as it has in years past. In fact, China, and consequently the dry bulk sector, may not see the type of growth exhibited during the early 2000s for a long time, if ever again. While India will grow increasingly important to the drybulk sector, it won’t be the “new China” anytime soon, as their developmental paths are very different. While this may sound a bit depressing, please keep in mind that total seaborne trade in the drybulk sector is still increasing at a healthy rate year-over-year. Demand will catch up with supply if a continuation scrapping and reduced ordering continue to play out as they have been recently.

a i ovo je zanimljiva kratkoročna procjena

There are early signs that secondhand values are bottoming out with several shipowners withdrawing their for-sale ships from the market, Pacific says.

cijene dionica najuže od svih varijabli prate vrijednost brodova pa bi to značilo da je i ATPL na dnu. a da će se pad cijena brodova zaustaviti je i bilo za očekivati budući da je flota prestala rasti pa će se sve dok je tako svako povećanje potražnje odražavati jedan na jedan na rast utilizacije i izravno pretakati u rast vozarina. sad još samo da do nekog povećanja i dođe.

ma kod tih kineza se najbolje stvari uvijek objavljuju nedjeljom. evo malo ambicioznije varijante čačićevog zagreba na savi [emo_cool]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/05/us-china-yangtze-idUSKBN0MW0FB20150405

…a framework to develop sprawling urban areas along the Yangtze River…

…the State Council, China’s cabinet, said on its website it would designate 317,000 square kilometers along the river to become urban areas…

317000 km2 je veće od poljske.

@inverter
A kako se ti informiras i analiziras trziste, zakljucujes i donosis odluke o investicijama?
Pratis babu Vangu ili bacas grah ili sto?

Volumen svjetske rgovine morem raste 4-5% godisnje sto je fenomenalno, no brodari su sami posjekli granu na kojoj sjede enormnom kolicinom narudzbi novogradnji. Nazalost, trebati ce jos neko vrijeme dok se ne postigne balans, a do tada cemo svjedociti jos ponekom extremno losem FI. Bilo kako bilo ATPL ove godine dobiva dva nova broda, pa tim vise glassine o eventualnoj prodaji hotela Lapad dobivaju na tezini. Vjerujem da za taj hotel mogu dobiti cca. 18 miljuna eura sto bi u ovoj situaciji sa extremno niskim vozarinama bilo olaksanje za Upravu. Ipak vise bi volio da prodaju projekt sa starom upravnom zgradom nego hotel Lapad.

najbolje da prodaju brodove i kupe Jadroplov a onda da netko kupi njih zajedno.
to bi bio spas za sve strane u ovoj igri
ako cijene prijevoza krenu gore Kinezi će još malo naštancati brodova i tako u krug

@inverter
Sve sto si rekao je tocno…ali ipak treba gledati dalje…
Pomorski prijevoz i dalje raste, svijet se razvija (azija pogotovo) i to se nece zaustaviti tako brzo
Pohlepa brodovlasnika je rezultirala viskom brodova to sad svi vide i tu je kljucni problem..
Ali sto se sad moze napraviti?
Mislim da ce ta pohlepa doci glave mnogim brodarima i da ce ih dosta ici ‘out of business’ ili ce morati prodavati brodove i smanjivati svoju flotu.
Svi su u ovom biznisu uzasno zaduzeni i samo oni sa jakom bilancom ce moci opstati.
Atlantska je u dobrim vremenima ulagala u hotele..sad im je to kasica prasica odakle vade novce….ali oni to imaju..koliko drugih brodara jos ima takve kasice prasice? Otkaz ona 2 broda je isto bio dobar potez jer ce moci povuci novce koje su u dobrim vremenima zaradili (samo to treba jos docekati)

Gledaj.. uvijek ovisi s koje pozicije gledas…ako si vec od ranije unutra to je jedna stvar…ako tek sad moguce ulazis to je sasvim druga stvar.

Svako ima svoj ‘risk apetite’ za ulaganja..
Ja recimo mislim da je sada odlicno vrijeme za ulaganje u brodare.
Neki brodari su debelo podcijenjeni.
Pogledati npr PRGN
NAV oko 5,8$, a dionica se prosli tjedan srusila na 0,8$
Tu je ‘upside potential’ ogroman. Za onoga tko ima ‘muda’.