Evo nešto na tu temu…

Shipping issues arising out of the Ukraine crisis

The background facts

The situation in Ukraine remains fluid and, with events moving quickly, very little is certain. Attention is focused on the Crimea with rumours in early March of Russian naval vessels at times blockading the Kerch Straits which, if true, would quickly isolate the main port of Mariupol. At present, the US and EU appear committed to achieving a non-military solution to the ongoing crisis. Limited sanctions have been introduced by both, aimed at freezing and/or seizing the assets of persons designated under the sanctions for their involvement in undermining the democratic process in Ukraine or misappropriating assets of the State. Russia has introduced its own limited sanctions in response. No-one wants to see any kind of armed escalation, but we can expect a period of uncertainty as Russia decides how it will react.

Ukraine’s importance in terms of wheat and corn supplies is significant. It is also a key exporter of metals and minerals to Europe, Russia and beyond. Ukraine ranks as the world’s fourth and fifth largest exporter of corn and wheat respectively and it is the world’s fifth largest steel exporter. It is also a vital gateway for Russian natural gas to Western Europe, with approximately a fifth of the gas used in Europe flowing across the country. Together with Russia, Ukraine forms the northern coast of the Black Sea, an important shipping route for agricultural products, metals and energy.

The potential disruption for the corn, wheat, gas and steel industries, together with the resulting rise in prices, is causing considerable concern. An escalation of tensions and any military action may have repercussions for shipowners, charterers, crews and insurers alike.
We outline below some of the legal issues that the shipping industry may face if the situation in Ukraine escalates.

Pa da, baš tako. Rekoše i drugi. Naime, ugljen i žito koji bi došli vlakom iz Rusije sad će morati brodom odnekud drugdje. Ista stvar i za uvoz u Rusiju. Ponavljam, ne izmišljam nego prepričavsm komentare nekih stranjskih analitičara.

Brodovi ATPL su bili zadnjih godina prilično angažirani na izvozu ugljena iz Rusije za zapadnu Evropu pa mi se ovo nimalo ne sviđa.

Sankcije otežavaju, ali ne ukidaju ekonomske aktivnosti. Sankcije Rusiji samo znače da će dobra koja trebaju i jedni i drugi sad morati kupovati na daljim i skupljim mjestima. To je sve. A cijena dionice ATPL ionako ovisi samo i isključivo o dnevnom BDI (nažalost), a ne o poslovanju, tj. o FI-ima.

Jindal Waterways of India is said to have sold the 75,000-dwt bulker Jindal Varad (built 1994) for further trading. The B&W-built vessel, which is due for special survey in October, has gone to another Indian owner for $5.8m, or slightly over its demolition value. Jindal bought the ship as Petka from Croatia’s Atlantska Plovidba for $9.5m in April 2012 in a deal that included a one-year charter back at $10,000 per day.

BDI jako raste u svakoj situaciji globalnih ratnih ugroza, povećane potrebe + opasnost.

poslovanje je bolje ako su više vozarine. bez obzira na to da li brodovi plove na rutama na koje su godinama navikli ili na nekim drugim.

Tako je. Iako ima mnogih kojima to nije jasno samo po sebi.

ovo je realnost, na žalost, makar koristilo vozarinama.

http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/ukraine-buys-coal-from-south-africa-after-mines-ruined/

Jasno da je ukupno poslovanje bolje s višim ukupnim prosječnim vozarinama. Ali razlike od rute do rute mogu biti ogromne i najčešće jesu, kao što se može vidjeti ovdje (staro je, ali je sasvim dovoljno za ilustraciju) :
http://pfi.me-freight.com/news/open/3D54C3115DE50BEBC2257C940050F10FQ=Panamax-and-Capesize-freight-market-Europe
Tako da je i izbor putovanja vrlo važan. I to je upravo dio na koji se može utjecati, dok se na prosječne vozarine ne može. E sad, druga je stvar diversifikacija flote i mogućnost da loše vozarine opet pojedu one dobre i stvari vrate na normalu. Kao i u portfelju. Nečija izvedba može biti bolja od tržišta.

http://www.platts.com/latest-news/coal/manila/chinas-thermal-coal-imports-expected-to-drop-27603399

predviđaju kineski pad uvoza ugljena jednak indijskom rastu.

China’s 2018 thermal coal imports are expected to plummet to half of this year’s projected total of 140 million mt, Goldman Sachs said in a report Thursday, September 4

Goldman Sachs estimated India’s thermal coal imports at 156 million mt this year, rising to 230 million mt in 2018.

što se tiče indije to je jako konzervativna procjena, s obzirom da su već mnogi najavili da će indija već u ovoj fiskalnoj 2014/15 morati uvesti 200 mil tona termalnog ugljena.

a šire

Goldman Sachs said total Pacific demand for seaborne thermal coal would be 698 million mt this year, growing to 767 million mt in 2018.

hajde bolje išta nego ništa [emo_smijesak]