Dry bulk’s small window of opportunity
Singapore: As Maritime CEO celebrates passing the 400 interview mark, all week we are diving into our archives to see what leading shipowners have said about the markets in the past three months. Today, we focus on dry bulk, a market set for a solid second half according to Jeffrey Landsberg, writing in our latest magazine, on the back of stronger Brazilian iron ore exports.
Quite so, agreed Peter Twiss, Oldendorff Carriers’ president and ceo, when he spoke with us two weeks ago.
Twiss said dry bulk rates in the coming 12 months will be “respectable”, especially with iron ore volumes remaining robust.
“After the collapse in late 2008, we are currently experiencing the first signs of a slight recovery due to an intermediate slowing down in fleet growth,” Twiss said. Annual newbuilding deliveries peaked in 2011 and have since slowed down, he observed.
“However, the current recovery may not be sustainable with deliveries expected to increase again in 2015 and 2016 due to the high number of new orders placed in 2013,” Twiss reckoned.
Sadan Kaptanoglu, a board member at the eponymous family conglomerate, was of a similar opinion when we interviewed her three weeks ago.
She noted that the demand side has just passed the supply side in dry bulk for the first time in six years so there is, she said, “a possibility of a small window of a better market until the new orders start to be delivered in 2016”.
In Mumbai, Khushroo Dhunjibhoy, the founder of Five Stars Shipping, told us at the end of July, “We think that the market is already more or less at levels post the Lehman crisis and it cannot stay like this forever.”
Always one to have a firm opinion on the markets, Khalid Hashim, managing director of Thailand’s Precious Shipping, said in late July that the dry bulk recovery would “start to show its teeth in Q4 of this year,” suggesting that it will then further strengthen during 2015 and into 2016.
“Depending on how silly shipowners get during this recovery, they will do their best to ensure that the recovery is short lived by ordering lots of ships which will start to deluge the market in 2017 to 2018,” he warned. The bottom of the next cycle could be in 2019/2020, Hashim reckoned, when it would once again be time to look at buying younger assets to replace or rejuvenate an existing fleet.
Shipowners’ ability to ruin their own markets was something Michael Bodouroglou, the boss of Greece’s Paragon Shipping, was keen to talk about when we interviewed him in mid-May.
“I am quite optimistic about dry bulk for the next two years,” he said, before ruminating: “Beyond that, it will depend how reckless shipowners are, and we shipowners are normally reckless and destroy our own market.”
Panamaxi i dalje rastu
http://www.dryships.com/pages/report.asp
Nema više panamaxi na 5000 dnevno, past tense za dulje razdoblje. Očekujem vrlo brzo špekulantski kapital na brodarima, bez velikih igrača i njihovih interesa nema značajnijeg podizanja cijene dionice.
A bome i danas rast panamaxa.
http://www.dryships.com/pages/report.asp
Varolizirat će to cijena dionice, vrlo uskoro.
Prije najnovijeg BDI izvješća evo malo pozitive nasuprot zaraznog pesimizma koji pritišće iz drugih sektora:
http://www.cnss.com.cn/html/2014/weeklyarticle_0904/158988.html
9.1-9.3 Hot Issues in the Dry Bulk Market
Sep 4, 2014
Dry Bulk Rates Set to Rise By a Very Large Amount
Through the first three days of this week, the Baltic Dry Index has decreased by just 5 points to 1,142 points. Panamax, supramax, and handysize freight rates have all found support this week. Going forward, however, capesize freight rates are poised to find a very large amount of support very soon. Capesize vessel availability remains tight and much more capesize cargoes of coal and iron ore are set to surface in both the Atlantic and Pacific very soon. Global spot chartering activity has increased this week. A total of 50 dry bulk cargoes have been chartered in the spot market so far this week. In comparison, 46 cargoes were chartered during the first three days of last week.
Chinese Steel Stockpiles Continue to Decline
Stockpiles of flat and construction steel products in China currently total approximately 12.5 million tons, 100,000 tons (-1%) less than a week ago. Chinese steel stockpiles have been coming under all but steady pressure since the middle of March and are now down by 2.3 million tons (-16%) on a year-on-year basis. It remains encouraging that steel stockpiles have stayed much lower than last year’s level, even as steel production in China has stayed very robust. Chinese steel production is set to stay high during the upcoming months. This will ensure capesize vessels and iron ore import cargoes remain in great demand in China.
Indian Demand For Thermal Coal Imports to Increase Even Further
Indian power plant coal stockpiles have now fallen to 8.8 million tons, the lowest level seen in over one-and-a-half years. Indian electricity demand has continued to surge but hydropower production has remained under pressure as India continues to witness a much weaker than normal monsoon this year. This is resulting in an ongoing surge in thermal coal-derived electricity generation and greater demand for thermal coal imports in India. Indian coal imports are set to increase even further in the weeks and months ahead. This remains quite beneficial for the panamax, handymax, and capesize segments of the dry bulk shipping market.
Dobro je, capeovi sutra okreću na gore, a ovi naši mic po mic, valjda brže kasnije, u Q4. Target 440-450, konzervativno.
…da se nadovežem na prethodni post kolege Mannua,
Coal shortage at India power stations worsens!
The number of thermal power plants with less than seven days of coal stocks has risen to 56 this week from 52 last week, government data showed.
India’s 100 thermal power plants had enough coal overall to last six days on Sept. 1, unchanged on week, the Central Electricity Authority said.
The stock levels are the lowest since mid-2012, when hundreds of millions of people were cut off in one of the world’s worst blackouts.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Krishna N Das; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
Nakon što su Argosy i Dubrovnik vozili za Jorf Lasfar, Jadran za Gijon, sada se Argosy uputio prema Eregli, Turska.
Je li moguće da će ugljen s Baltika voziti čak do tamo što je preko 5000 milja?
Do sada se tamo ugljen dovozio uglavnom iz ukrajinskih i ruskih crnomorskih luka.
Turska godišnje uvozi preko 20m tona ugljena, najviše oko 40% iz Rusije. Iza toga slijedi Kolumbija.
rusija pod sankcijama? što je za očekivati kao refleksiju u brodskom transportu?
Rast vozarina. Sad će se u Evropu neke sirovine morati uvoziti brodovima iz udaljenijih područja.