Odvrtio sam prepisku Alien-Vipy. Imao sam i sam nekoliko puta slucaj izvlacenja starih postova koje je vrijeme na duzi period obezvrjedilo (u trenutku pisanja to je bila realnost) i izvlacenja iz konteksta. To zaista nema smisla. Mi ne pisemo o zadanim velicinama vec pokusavamo predvidjeti dogadjaje po nekakvim parametrima i ponekad smo uspjesni a ponekad nismo. Neka se javi ko je malu duze na burzi a nije napravio pogresku. Ako se i javi ja mu necu vjerovati.

Zato savjetujem da se svi upregnemo u ista kola i doprinesemo svaki prema svojim mogucnostima kako bi Forum bio izvor informacija a ne izvor pametovanja, ljecenja kompleksa, pokazivanja misica sakriven iza nicka i slicno.

Baosteel, Rio Tinto say iron ore talks still underway
Friday, 18.01.2008, 12:16am (GMT)

China’s largest steel maker Baosteel and Australia’s Rio Tinto said Thursday they were still holding talks on future iron ore prices, denying a report that negotiations had ended. “The negotiation is still going on. It hasn’t stopped,” a Baosteel company official told AFP. Baosteel is leading Chinese mills in the talks. The Australian Financial Review reported Wednesday on its website that Baosteel had left the negotiating table, blaming high prices asked by miners. The Chinese official, who declined to be named, did not provide any more details. The world’s three largest miners — Anglo-Australian groups BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, and Brazil’s CVRD — were expected to hammer out the annual contract prices for iron ore with a Chinese representative.
“We don’t comment normally on pricing negotiations, suffice to say that negotiations are continuing,” Rio Tinto spokesman Gervase Greene told AFP when asked about discussions. In 2006, China was the world’s first major steel producer to settle with the three mining firms, agreeing to a relatively modest hike of 9.5 percent for the year starting April 2007.
That followed a 19 percent rise in 2006 and a 71.5 percent spike in 2005.
Analysts have said they expect Chinese steelmakers to pay a significantly higher price for iron ore from April 1 this year. Estimates of the increase range from 35 percent to more than 100 percent.
Source: AFP

pardon, srednji ulaz je 3390-i cekam na 2900

Kolega Techman, naklon do poda [thumbsup]

Baltic Dry Index fall sets fresh record as rates slide
Michelle Wiese Bockmann – Friday 18 January 2008

THE Baltic Dry Index has again plunged in its largest one-day fall since records began in 1985, breaking the record set a day earlier.

Tumbling dry indices, led by the capesize sector, have fuelled fears that the global commodities boom, now entering its sixth year, is ending.

Collapsing rates for capesize and panamax vessels saw 6.4% shaved off the BDI, which has now hit an eight-month low and seen four record one-day falls in a week.

The BDI lost 443 points, reaching 6472, and has dropped 27% since the beginning of 2008, and 41% since its November peak.

A lack of iron ore cargoes from Brazil saw capesize spot rates drop to $12,673 per day to $82,954, based on the Baltic’s average daily time charter of four routes. The Baltic Capesize Index lost 889 points to reach 7520, just short of Wednesday’s record drop of 965 points.

Falling confidence in the dry freight market comes as fears of a US recession increase. Jittery equity markets have wiped hundreds of millions of dollars off the value of shipping stocks in the US, London and Asia in the last four days.

“The recent collapse in the Baltic Dry Index is a warning sign that the commodity boom could be about to come to an abrupt end,” London-based Capital Economics said in a note Thursday.

The slump was “consistent with other evidence pointing to a global slowdown”, the report also said.

On Tuesday the investment bank UBS said further sharp falls in the BDI “could signal recession and weakening demand”.

Forward Freight Agreements for first quarter 2008 capesize rates fell to $83,000 per day, according to the broker FIS, down from $97,00 per day on Wednesday, well short of the $149,000 level at which contracts traded less than two weeks ago.

With $187bn in newbuildings ordered in 2007, Clarkson Research managing director Martin Stopford said fundamentals were “moving out of line with long-term sensible predictions”.

“The [dry bulk] rates last year were exceptional, so what looks like an enormous fall are in fact still quite good rates,” Dr Stopford said.

But he cautioned that the next few months was when the dry market would be tested. “It’s a time when the market sorts out how much is sentiment and how much is fundamentals,” he said.

“But it is tricky because it’s also a time when people are posturing over volumes and iron ore, so you have to tread quite carefully.”

“So far there’s no evidence coming through that the cargo side of things is looking particularly weak,” Dr Stopford said.

“So it’s really a confidence thing as much as anything else.”

nema nama napretka bez zvijezde.
crvene.[lol]

BDI indeks cijena brodarskog prijevoza rasutih tereta jučer je ponovo žestoko korigiran 6,41 posto, čime je potonuo 41,37 posto u odnosu na svoju najvišu razinu od prije dva mjeseca. S obzirom na novu značajnu korekciju indeksa vozarina, neki analitičari i danas najavljuju pad cijena dionica domaćih brodarskih kompanija…

http://business.hr/Default2.aspx?ArticleID=f083e9fc-4f95-4b44-a027-f2504d67b568&open=sec

Pa zar ne vidiš K/P na ATPL?

Danas cu se i ja pridruzit brodarima (samo cekam da vidim po kojoj cijeni) i biti ce to prvi brodar ikada u mojem portfoliu. Pa da malo plovimo!

Imperial (75,510 dwt, 14/38.1L 14.5/38.1B, 2007-built) delivery China 1-10 Feb, redelivery worldwide, 3 months, $49,500 daily.

Da se malo podsjetimo perjanice , koja je navodno u godišnjem T/C-u po 77.000 USD.
Teška vremena za charterera.

ZSE: Očekuje se fokus tržišta na brodare, IGH, Đuro Đaković Holding i Agrokor
Business.hr/Hina

Loše raspoloženje na svjetskim burzama moglo bi se danas preliti i na Zagrebačku burzu, a u fokusu ulagača i dalje bi mogle biti brodarske i građevinske dionice, mišljenja su analitičari.
“Očekujem nestabilnost na tržištu i promjenjivost cijena sve dok se ne stabilizira situacija na globalnim burzama. Previše je neizvjesnosti, a ulagače ponajviše muči što će se dogoditi ako američko gospodarstvo utone u recesiju”, kaže Dalibor Balgač, analitičar Abacus brokera.

Većina analitičara i danas očekuje veliku likvidnost u brodarskom sektoru.
“Mislim da su ulagači pretjerano reagirali na pad indeksa vozarina BDI. Riječ je, ipak, o pokazatelju spot vozarina. Brodari sipkog tereta ove će godine biti u jako vrućem položaju“, kaže Balgač.

Kako je pojasnio, očekuje se da na tržištu brodskog prijevoza potražnja ove godine premaši ponudu zbog velike potražnje Kine za rudama, a i zbog malo naručenih novih brodova. Trenutno su jedina prepreka rastu vozarina zakočeni pregovori između Kine i proizvođača čelika iz Australije i Brazila oko cijene te sirovine.

Dovoljan je podatak o zagrijanosti tog tržišta da je prošle godine BDI indeks krenuo s razine od oko 2500 bodova, a ovu godinu započinje na 6500 bodova, kaže Balgač.

http://business.hr/Default2.aspx?ArticleID=e849e63f-b970-4818-89c1-1fa2bf8534b6&ref=investor