Osobno mislim da se može raditi paralela Diana Shippinga i Atlantske plovidbe, možda čak i Tankerske plovidbe jer postoji veliki slobdan CASH a time i sigurnost.
Za ostala dva brodara, Jadroplov i Uljanik nisam tako siguran imaju li zalihe za izgurati potrebno.
Ali jedno je sigurno tko preživi iduću godinu (jer mnogo brodova ide u rezališta i brodari idu u bankrot) očekujem snažniji zamah vozarina već oko 2014.g.
Vrhunac vozarina već oko 2016.g.

Što je ovdje opet zavladala šutnja, jer panamaxi već rone danima,a to nije dobro za Atlansku.

Evo jos malo na temu da li je bearish ili bullish raspolozenje u shippingu:

Credit Suisse: “Here comes the sun” for shipping industry

The 2004-2008 dry bulk super-cycle isn’t coming back, says Credit Suisse, but good money can and will be made in dry bulk shipping. The BDI peaked at 11,793 in May 2008, 10x above today’s level. Asset prices have come down alongside though, with newbuild ships off 50% and 2nd-hand 75%, meaning charter rates don’t need to be nearly as high for a new owner to bank coin.Iron ore volumes are key and there’s plenty of iron ore supply coming online, but what about demand (China)?
While the team has doubts Chinese demand can grow fast enough, it does note the country’s mines produced 353 metric tons of ore last year – China’s a high cost producer though and these mines will be the first to shut down on low ore prices. This means higher imports and greater shipping volumes – a difference-maker going forward.

jok,, uživamo na moru i pokušavam još nešto uhvatiti ako bi netko htio se rješiti dionica, pa eto ajde prodaj kad index pada i kad nevalja ATPL, ja sam postavio ostatak keša na ispod 300, al nikako da se uhvati nešto 🙁

važniji dijelovi članka sa sa h.shipp.

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No slowdown is seen in steel production fortunately, at Chinese steel production went up by 9.2% in the first half as compared to same period last year. Iron ore imports “only” went up by 4.8% in the same period of time. Both indicators are positive for shipping demand. Traditionally, Chinese iron ore demand is stronger in the second half of the year; this could build a case for stronger rates in the larger segments in Q3 and Q4 if this seasonality is repeated.
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To sum up, our forecast for the coming 2 months: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected around USD 8,000-13,000 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 6,000-9,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to show limited volatility in the interval of USD 6,500-9,000 per day.
Source: BIMCO Peter Sand Chief Shipping Analyst

http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/News.aspx?ElementId=674fc8dc-d704-4894-bfaf-d21678da3596

Ovo je puno realnija analiza od onih sa market realista koji objavljuju pozitivne projekcije pa savjetuju kupnju drys, dsx, sb… To je jednako kao ona analiza erste banke.
Najbitnije da će panamaxi ostati između 6000-9000, neće biti proboja vozarina na višu razinu kako su neki pisali! Handysize također izgleda nestabilno, što nije dobro za atpl, a capesize nemaju.
Kako je falco izdvojio samo pozitivne, evo i meni nekoliko zanimljivih isječaka, gotovo da cijeli ostatak teksta ima negativne dijelove.[emo_palacg]

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“It is a little miracle that tight situations can still appear and push up freight rates, in spite of tonnage being abundant in the market.”

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“Besides that, the market is affected by falling commodity prices (iron ore, steel and coal). This could, in theory, positively affect shipping demand if consumers and traders take advantage of it and stock up, but it may as well mirror a fundamental slowdown in demand.”

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The larger production of steel and moderate consumption of same has put steel prices under pressure. Falling steel prices are normally quite worrying for the dry bulk sector. In the wake of several months with record high steel production, prices weakened continuously, getting quite close to the threateningly low levels of August/September 2012. But has the scare just evaporated with the latest pick up in prices toward the end of July? That is still too early to call despite the optimism in most recent “official” China manufacturing PMI report.

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As a lot of Panamax ships are currently being delivered into an oversupplied market, owners showed only little appetite for placing new orders for Panamax ships.
In total, the dry bulk orderbook has grown by 3.2 million DWT during the recent two months. It now stands at 126 million DWT. It’s the first time in more than two and a half years that the orderbook has increased, on its way down from 300 million DWT highs at the end of 2010.
As 29 million DWT of new vessels have been ordered so far in 2013, the total has already surpassed that of the full year 2012. This development seems to have stopped the slide of newbuilding prices, which are now seen to be on a slow rise, with the exception of Panamax newbuilding prices which are still flat, as demand does not support higher prices in this segment yet.[emo_palacd]

Lova što će ATPL dobiti nazad od kineza za nepoštivanje ugovorenih rokova veća je od marketcapa nekih firmi izlistanih na ZSE. Nevjerojatno je kako su oni iskoristili ovu krizu, pomladili su flotu značajno i napravili novu upravnu zgradu, a hoteli rade bolje nego ikad što će se osjetiti na FI 3Q zbog sezonskog karaktera te djelatnosti. Zapneli li što mogu prodati jedan hotel za 20-ak milja eura i idemo dalje do nove konjukture u brodarstvu. Bolje vozarine očekujem već krajem godine.

Vranjo, zelenilo vani te demantira.
P.S. Nisam ni čitao to što si postao. Ali očito ti je sada frka, sutra će dionica bit 140-tak posto skuplja.

Sorry, 10-tak posto.

Dobro je biti optimistia, ali činjenice su neumoljive, panamaxi rone danima, a ronili su i danas, pitanje je kako im se upće isplati voziti sa ovakvim vozarinama, i pitanje je koliko će još moći trpiti ovakve godišnje gubitke.
Nije nagovor na kupovinu ili prodaju dionica.