Krejže, meni se kupnja hotela u ono doba uopce nije cinila promasenom. Dapace, bila je to dalekosezna odluka, upravo tbog ovakvih potresa.

Koliko je drys prodavao ne znam, niti me ne zanima. Ono što sam rekao je da ovaj rezultat daje lažnu sliku i gubitak bi trebao biti puno veći. Ne može se dugo živjeti prodajom onoga što se ranije stvaralo. Ako drys i propadne kao tvrtka to ne znači da će njegovi brodovi nestati, nego će većina biti prodana pa će umjesto njih biti vlasnik “Kinez”. Atlantska je isto tako mogla čekati bankrote ako će ih već toliko biti koliko bi vi htjeli, pa se onda opskrbiti jeftinim brodovima, umjesto ovih preplaćenih, kupnjom kojih su se našli na gubitničkoj strani.

Atlantska plovidba je danas preuzela novi Panamax s kojim će od prvog dana stvarati gubitke. Netko voli gubitke pa je cijena nešto porasla. Hm?! [emo_zacudjen]

Ne razumijem zašto brodari danas posluju. Ja bi privezao brodove, ostavio minimalni broj radnika na održavanju i čekao oporavak. Ovako imam osjećaj da oporavka nikad neće biti

Ne odnosi se komentar samo na atlansku, nije mi jasno zašto danas brodari uopće posluju

Nemoj ti biti smiješan. Malo se informiraj, jer imaš svaki mjesec objavljene nove ugovore o gradnji bulkera i izvještaje o kupnji starijih brodova između brodarskih kompanija. Još uvijek se naručuje “sve u šesnaest” zbog nižih cijena, makar postoji oversupply. Tko je bio mudar sad obnavlja flotu jer brodogradilišta zbog manje posla privlače niskim cijenama, a može se i “lešinarski” čekati i preuzeti dijelove flote onih koji su se zbog prezaduženosti i kupnje po većim cijenama našli u problemima.

Kad propadne neki veliki brodar, na scrapping idu samo bezvrijedni stari brodovi (kao u slučaju lošinjske plovidbe), a ti su ionako trebali tamo završiti od strane samog propalog brodara. Novi/ji prodaju na tržištu, i potražnje ne nedostaje.

Evo što će biti 2013:

Hire (BDIY) costs for Panamax vessels that carry iron ore, coal and grains may be suppressed by an oversupply of new ships next year, according to Commodore Research & Consultancy.

There are 595 Panamaxes, the largest vessels to navigate the Panama Canal, scheduled for delivery by the end of 2013, including 355 vessels this year and 240 next, the New York-based consultant said in an e-mailed report today. That compares with an order book of 235 Capesize ships, the largest carriers of iron ore and coal, by the end of next year.

“In 2013, the Panamax market is poised to become the most oversupplied of all of the dry-bulk vessel classes,” said Jeffrey Landsberg, managing director of Commodore. “While near- term prospects for Capesize rates remain bleak due to the tremendous amount of Capesize vessels that will remain available in the market, a strong case can be made that future prospects for Panamax rates are considerably worse.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-18/panamax-oversupply-to-suppress-ship-rates-commodore-forecasts.html

@ivedome, nisu znali kažeš, e pa zato i imaju loše ugovore. Slično je sa kupnjom dionica, ti npr nisi znao da će ingra na 3kn pa si kupio na 3000kn (hipotetski), a netko drugi je do danas ostao u cashu ili ulagao drugdje i sad gleda što će kupiti. Isto to vrijedi i za brodare, pa tako imamo one koji danas naručuju novogradnje po cca 24 mil dolara i one koji su ranije sklopili loše ugovore i prezaduženi idu u 2013, a rupe krpaju koliko mogu prodajom imovine.[emo_bijesan][emo_palacd]

Kolega Vranja, tekst vam je iz prošlog stoljeća. Evo jedan noviji:

Record demolition activity seeks to curb tonnage oversupply
Saturday, 17 November 2012 | 00:00
[Record demolition activity seeks to curb tonnage oversupply ]
This year will prove to be another record-breaker in terms of scrapping of older vessels across all shipping segments, as the equally feverish pace of newbuilding deliveries don’t leave ship owners much room for anything else. Today’s market conditions could be very well described as the exact opposite of what was the case back in 2008, when scrapyards were literally pleading ship owners to sell them some of their older carriers, to keep them afloat, as most of them in places like India and Bangladesh were faced with closures. But, ship owners were finding out that their 25-year old vessels could fetch serious cash, either through the freight markets, or through a resale, so they had absolutely no incentives to scrap them.
Fast forward in 2012 and it’s the opposite case, with owners looking to scrap and demolition yards enjoying an unprecedented boom. According to the latest weekly report from shipbrokers Intermodal, during the 10 months of 2012 (January-October) scrapping activity has reached new record heights. “All ships scrapped so far in 2012 amount to 55m tons of active carrying capacity, compared to 44m tons seen in 2011. We expect that demolition intake appetite will continue at the same pace as that experienced all throughout 2012, despite the small disruption this week during Diwali festivities, so we may well see that more than 1,500 ships, surpassing 60m tons dwt, will have been beached this year” said Intermodal’s John N. Cotzias.
In the dry bulk sector, 489 bulkers have been scrapped totaling 30m dwt (432 units, 25m dwt 2011). “The average size of bulkers scrapped is 63,000dwt while in 2011 it was 57,000dwt. The average age of bulkers scrapped in 2012 is 28 years while in 2011 it was 31 years, so not only have we scraped bigger but also younger bulkers. Capes scrapped in 2012 are 74 (12.5m dwt) compared to the 67 Capes (11m dwt) seen in 2011, Panamaxes were 113 (7.6mil dwt) compared to 80 (5.4m dwt), Handymaxes were 84 (3.8m dwt) compared to 49 (2.2m dwt), Handysizes were 170 (5.4m dwt) compared to 131 (3.9m dwt). The net fleet growth for Bulkers during the past ten months has been 9.6%, while this could easily climb up to around 11% by the end of the year. As such it is interesting to note how important a role, the intensive scrapping has played in keeping the balance between the massive number of newbuilding deliveries and the growth in seaborne trade” Cotzias said.
In the tanker segment, “171 Tankers of 14m dwt have been withdrawn in 2012 (in 2011 we had 231 ships of 11.8m dwt). The average size of tankers scrapped is 82,000dwt while in 2011 it was 51,000dwt. The average age in 2012 is 26 years while in 2011 it was 29 years. We saw 19 (5.2m dwt) VLCCs scrapped in 2012, compared to 16 (11m dwt) in 2011, 24 Suezmaxes (3.5m dwt), compared to 2011 were we had 9 (1.3m dwt), 24 Aframaxes (2.4m dwt) compared to 2011 were we had 27 (2.6m dwt), 53 LR1 and MR ships (2.5m dwt) compared to 60 (2.6m dwt) in 2011. 202 (28m dwt) were the tanker newbuildings delivered during the first 10 months of 2012 and the net tanker fleet growth has been 3.2% so far, while scrapping has kept up pace equaling to half of the total newbuilding deliveries” the shipbroker’s report noted.
Looking at the regional intake of every major demolition country, as always India leads the tables having taken 467 ships of 17.4mil dwt (4.2mt ldt), while Pakistan 95 ships of 9mil dwt (1.4mt ldt), Bangladesh 204 ships of 13.8mil dwt (2.4mt ldt), China 255 ships 11mil dwt (2.2mt ldt), and Turkey 226 ships of 2.1mil tns dwt (0.53mt ldt).
Intermodal’s Cotzias concluded that “with steel prices still keeping firm, backed by a strong demand, and iron ore prices holding steady, we anticipate that demand for demolition candidates will remain strong during 2013, keeping the offered prices relatively close to today’s levels. This way, we may continue to see many ships leaving the active fleet, alleviating a heavily saturated and over-capacitated market that will likely hold through the last big lot of newbuilding deliveries in 2013.
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide

Cijena 37 miljuna dolara, 30% keš

[/quote]

Kolega, odakle ta cijena? U svojim bilješkama imam da je cijena za prva 2 panamaxa 45 mil USD, a druga 2 13 mil jeftinije, dakle 32 mil USD.
Obično imate dobre podatke, pa da se usuglasimo..

Evo sam izvukao 2 slike iz revidiranog FI za 2009.g. sa str. 5. i 34.

Na gornjoj (str.5 FI) se spominje ponovno ugovaranje 2 otkazanih novogradnji, ali za 13 mil USD jeftiniju cijenu.
Da se prisjetimo, u samo svitanje krize naručili su 4 panamaxa, pa su 2 otkazali i onda ih ponovo ugovorili, po jeftinijoj cijeni.

Na donjoj slici (str.34 FI) u bilješci 24 o događajima nakon datuma bilance spominje se ugovaranje ta 2 panamaxa za 64 mil USD. Znači po komadu 32 mil.

Kako u gornjem okviru spominju da su 13 mil USD jeftiniji od otkazanih, pretpostavljam da to znači da je originalna cijena za sva 4 onomad ugovorena panamaxa bila 13 mil više, dakle 45 mil USD?

Ako to je to tako, onda imamo:

2 originalno naručena pmx po 45 mil USD
2 otkazana pa reugovorena po 32 mil USD

UKUPNO to iznosi 154 mil USD, a prosječna cijena je 38,5 mil USD po brodu.

Jel se slažete s ovim brojkama? Ima li netko drukčije podatke?
[/quote]

Baza ste podataka kolega, potpuno se slažem, prosječna cijena po brodu za ova 4 panamaxa iz Kine je app.38 miljuna dolara, a obzirom da je ovaj zadnji jako kasnio brodogradilište ima platiti velike penale brodaru, pa i moja računica od 37 nije pogrešna. Ako dođe do oporavka u drugoj polovici 2014., kao što predviđaju neki USA bankari i analitičari, mogao bi to biti dobar posao.

topalov, taj članak potvrđuje ovo što sam ja napisao, tj da stari brodovi (oko 25 godina) idu na scrapping, koji je ove godine rekordan, ali bez obzira na to će se ukupna flota povećati iduće godine.

Na istom siteu malo niže ima još jedan članak kupnji second hand brodova starih 10, 15, 17 godina. Ako dryships ili netko drugi bankrotira, drugi će nastaviti, jer ploviti se mora.[emo_zloban]

Ship owners keep on investing in second hand vessels
http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/News.aspx?ElementId=682a2df3-1071-44c7-ad47-bfdd378a2f22

Još malo niže članak o porastu operativnih troškova 2013.

Vessel operating costs expected to rise over the next two years
http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/News.aspx?ElementId=be8dc9b4-18cc-499f-9d32-4ffb4f9d1064