Star Bulk is bullish about 2008

Michelle Wiese Bockmann – Tuesday 18 December 2007

MANAGEMENT at Star Bulk Carrier Corp have disagreed with the bearish dry bulk market assessment of their largest shareholder, Nobu Su, telling investors yesterday that they expected rates to stay “extremely strong” in 2008.

Nobu Su, chief executive of privately-held Taiwan Maritime Transport, owns about one-third of the Nasdaq-listed company. Earlier this month, Mr Su generated global headlines after he warned of “insane” and “unsustainable” charter rates for the global bulk carrier fleet, and stated his doubts that many owners could survive looming overcapacity.

But Star Bulk’s chief executive, Prokopios Tsirigakis, gave an opposite view, warning that not enough new vessels would be delivered in 2008 to meet rising demand, especially to transport iron ore and grain.

Mr Tsirigakis forecast “a traditional softening” of rates over the Christmas and New Year holiday period, but a “quite strong” first quarter that “might even exceed our expectations”. He indicated that rates would hold up even until September.

“In 2008 [newbuild] deliveries will be significantly less than in 2007,” he said. “Yet demand has sucked up all of those deliveries. We are being faced by a substantial — and when I say substantial, I mean a 30% to 40% — price hike for iron ore which we expect to come into play in late April or May.

“We see a lot of activity prior to those price hikes… and we also see very much activity transporting grain in the first quarter. Coupled with low deliveries, 2008 looks good for us.”

Baltic Exchange dry indices hit record highs in late October and mid-November, with the main index closing at 9,949 on December 13, 135% higher than its June low of 4,219.

Star Bulk was formed on November 30, with the merger of Star Maritime Acquisition Corp and Star Bulk Carriers. LastJanuary, Star Bulk Carriers paid $345.2m for a fleet of two capesize, one panamax and six supramax vessels from Mr Su’s TMT in a cash and stock deal. All are on time charters.

Mr Su now owns 30% of the newly formed company with a market value of $185m.

Some 49% is listed, and the rest is owned by management, including Mr Tsirigakis, with a 9.65% stake.

Star Bulk yesterday revealed the purchase of a ninth vessel, a 2001-built supramax for $72m, with a three-year time charter at a gross daily rate of $47,800.

Holiday lull comes early for panamax owners

Sandra Tsui – Tuesday 18 December 2007

THE panamax dry bulk market continued to fall last week as brokers blamed the looming Christmas and New Year holidays for slower market activity, writes Sandra Tsui.

The Baltic Panamax Index lost a total of 412 points after falling for an entire week to close at 9,394 on Friday.

“It looks like there are more ships than cargoes in the market at the moment. It was worst in the Far East. But there were some big operators taking period charters. Even so, that did not help bolster the rates,” said a Beijing-based shipbroker.

An interesting observation by Galbraith’s shows how drastically the market has changed in the past month.

“On November 8, the Pacific round voyage was $94,907 [per day] and the backhaul was $94,839; these same routes now stand at $68,299 and $65,113,” said the brokerage house in its report last week.

The Atlantic market was relatively steadier, said the Beijing broker, with more cargoes, mainly grain and coal, being exported from South America and the US Gulf. According to Galbraith’s, last week’s transatlantic round voyage was at low $80,000 per day while the fronthaul was at mid $80,000 per day.

“As Christmas and New Year holidays are approaching, shipowners will feel more stress,” the Beijing broker added.

He is not the only one blaming the upcoming holidays. Fearnleys said in its latest report: “It should be a tick early for Christmas vacation to affect the market, but presently there is no other explanation for the low activity.”

Although the market is likely to look dimmer in the near future, it is not solely pessimistic.

“It is difficult to see much short-term improvement at present and we feel it will only be once the holiday period has elapsed that any momentum will return to the market,” said Galbraith’s.

Recent timecharter trips in the Atlantic include the 1990-built, 71,062 dwt Darya Noor, which was fixed at $82,750 per day by TMT to sail from Amsterdam, via the US Gulf with grain, to the Far East.

At $90,000 per day, Industrial Carriers has taken the 1999-built, 75,265 dwt Grazia Bottiglieri to ship iron ore from Romania’s Constanza to China.

In the Pacific, the 1990-built, 69,332 dwt Citrawati was fixed at $60,000 per day to ship coal from Indonesia to Taiwan. Also for the transport of coal, Chokang is paying $72,000 per day for the 2002-built, 75,007 dwt Angelic Glory to make a trip from Indonesia to Korea.

In the Indian Ocean, NYK has agreed to pay $80,000 per day for the 1995-built, 73,760 dwt Coal Glory to sail from Mundra, via Goa with iron ore, to Japan; while Kandla Export Corp is paying $96,000 per day for the 2006-built, 82,795 dwt Prem Vidya to ship iron ore from India to China.

In the period timecharter market, Rizzo Bottiglieri has taken the 2004-built, 75,785dwt Achilles II for two years at $62,500 per day. Norden has also fixed the 1993-built, 69,255 dwt Energy at $72,500 daily for four to six months.

@action ming

kolega, mozete li nam reci jel vam ovo prvi nick/pojavljivanje na forumu??
osobno mi je tesko povjerovati u to, jer vidim da ste dosta duboko u shippingu, a i jako ste se brzo i dobro snasli na forumu..
nakucali ste u par dana 35 postova..od toga 100% na ATPLu [yawn]

pa ako nisam previse indiskretan, koji Vam je nick bio prije, i zasto ste ga promijenili?

hvala unaprijed[smiley]

@ MIG-29
Prvi i jedini.Dugo pratim forum i htio sam putem njega podjelit svoja mišljenja i informacije.U čemu je problem,ako ga ima.
P.S. čemu ta paranoja oko nikova?

Paranaoja je u tomo sto zadnji put kada je kolega Bazile koliko se sjecam pisao i navlacio vrlo agresivno dosta forumasa je uslo u ATPL na 3700 a on je to dobro znao iskoristiti.

Pa da se sada nebi neki opet zaletavali par savijeta

Pratite brodarski sektor vani ako pada budite uvjereni da ce padati i ATPL

Dok se ne rascisti ovo oko dobiti budite oprezni.

Pratite situaciju sa novogradnjama dali kasne ili ne.

Pratite situaciju sa gradjevinskim dijelom u koji ulaze ATPL

Inace imam dionice ATPL i pokusavam biti realan

također kao i ti geronimo pokušavam biti što je moguće više realan iako možda i na momente zazvučim pre kritično, ali to je s najboljim namjerama kako bi što više ljudi prije kupnje bilokoje dionice znalo što kupuje, zašto kupuje i što treba pratit, proučavat, računat, analizirat i ostalo, a ne zato jer piše na forumu da to negdje ide!!!

a što se tiče gurua, stručnjaka i svega ostalog koji su otkrili atpl na 3000+ i s ushićenjem briju na nove brodove, građevinu, hotele, marine, aviončeke i sve ostalo malo da vas podsjetim na kojim cijenama i kad, a i puno prije, itekako dobro znalo… [proud]

http://www.poslovni.hr/34509.aspx

Dobre stvari su

-ocekivanja stranih analiticara oko rasta BDI indexa u 2008
-dolazak novogradnji
-spekulacije oko ulaska mirovinaca u brodare
-trenutna vrlo visoka konjoktura BDI Indexa(scenarij da se brodovi koji su imali lose ugovore prebace na puno bolje)
-kumulativno odlican rezultat u 2007 i mogucnost postizanja jos boljeg u 2008

Dobit je takva zbog toga što atlantska kasni za kretanjem indeksa.Da nije impeijala i libertasa prosjek flote bio bi i ispod 30000$ dnevno.Ni meni nisu svi podaci koje sam postao jasni(konavle npr.),al većina ih je mislim točna(s obzirom na datume).Šteta što nisu svi na spotu(ili većina) i to objašnjava ovu dobit.Znam da su mnogi očekivali više i to će doći jer pravi rezultati će se tek vidjet.Bilo bi poražavajuče da je dobit ovolika a prosjek flote na 60-7000$,ovako zakašnjela reakcija tek slijedi.Inače imam atpl od veljače ,akupovo sam ju i nedavno (ht groznica) i ne mislim skoro prodavat

Vidim ja da polako gubim niti u svemu tome. Sto ces, nisam bas neko cudo… zamolio bih uvazenog kolegu Wunderkinda da nam napravi neku projekciju NAV-a Atlantske i Drysa. Ako nisam previse zahtjevan, ako je ikako moguce bilo bi lijepo i vidjeti ovogodisnje investicije Drysa te koje su novogradnje stigle…

Isto tako, malo mi je nejasno to slijepo obozavanje Drysa. Mozda sam bedast, ali ne vidim neku preveliku slicnost izmedju obje firme. Drys spot, Atlantska mixed TC….

Inace, Geronimo je naveo dobre strane. Evo malo i losih (trenutno):

– razocarenje “losom” dobiti
– razocarenje Skupstinom na kojoj nije najavljena dokapitalizacija kako su se neki nadali
– opce raspolozenje na zse
– americki brodari glavinjaju
– stagnacija BDI
– efekt krda

Sve u svemu, zbrojite (il oduzmite) plus i minus, pa donesite odluku sami.

Naravno, ako se odlucite za pozitivnu varijantu, ne zaboravite da dionice treba drzati dugorocno. Barem 4 mjeseca[tongue].

Sto se pak investicija van shippinga tice, to je lijepa stvar i garantira stabilnost firme. Zbog toga ce biti primamljiva nekim vecim igracima (hint – Shogunov post), mislim. Za spekulante to nema nikakvu ulogu…mala dobit u odnosu na shipping

Efekt krda mi se uvijek svidja. Naravno treba biti dovoljno jak da se ide kontra njega jer tu lezi najveca mogucnost profita.

4 mjeseca? Za vecinu forumasa to je dulje od vjecnosti… [cool][cool]

Ala mornari,
Vezano uz 164% YTY rast dobiti, jel probao itko to izracunati u constant currency? Ja dobivam nekih 90% YTY ako svedem $ na razinu od prije godinu dana.