Obzirom da će i hoteli u zadnjem kvartalu imati loš rezultat, a vozarine su relativno nisko, predviđam neto dobit na kraju godine 25-30 miljuna kuna, što je jako dobro za recesijsku godinu. Kako je firma u 2010 i 2011 zabilježila dobit a dionica je žestoko pala, u 2012 očekujem na kraju poslovne godine solidan minus (10-15 miljuna dolara) i dionicu znatno iznad sadašnje razine. Slažem se sa jednim kolegom što tvrdi da je u cijenu dionice već ukalkulirana 2012.[tongue]

Radi se doduše o tankerima, ali princip i situacija su, pretpostavljam, slični. Sasvim svježi bankrot:

General Maritime Corp, a crude oil and refined petroleum products shipper, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Thursday, becoming the latest victim of a downturn triggered by an oversupply of vessels amid weak demand.

Bankers expect more bankruptcies and restructuring in the sector as daily rates for vessels fall below their operating costs, hurting companies’ cash flows and ability to comply with loan agreements.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/17/generalmaritime-idUSL3E7MH27Q20111117?feedType=RSS&feedName=governmentFilingsNews&rpc=43

Rate($/Day) Change
BCI Average of the T/C routes $28340 (DOWN 455)
BPI Average of the T/C routes $14635 (UP 194)
BSI Average of the T/C routes $14438 (UP 129)
BHSI Average of the T/C routes $9388 (UP 13)

Porinuće novogradnje u NR Kini

http://www.zse.hr/userdocsimages/novosti/qIJunSRvJD3G0rA7STuc6Q==.pdf

He, kako je nekad na ovakvu vijest skakala dionica.

pa i sad je skočila s 389,5 na 390 🙂

Evo ti svjež primjer sa bulkerima iz TradeWind’s.

German player suffers fallout
Hamburg Shipping is expected to be the worst hit as several of its bulkers had long-term charter exposure to failed US outfit San Juan Navigation.
Germany’sHamburg Shipping (NHS) and associated KG (limited partnership) investors are facing serious financial exposure to the collapse of US bulker operator San Juan Navigation.
HS has emerged at the head of a list of owners with tonnage on charter to San Juan, whose collapse was first reported last week in TradeWinds’s online edition.

Itd…..

Situacija s financiranjem zaoštrava se i s brodarom TBSI koji kotira na NASDAQ-u.

Prije dobrih tjedan dana doživio je downgrade (hold ==> sell), pa je jučer stiglo priopćenje za javnost o pregovorima o neizvjesnom financiranju na što je dionica samo jučer otkliznula 10%, dok je u ovom trenutku u padu za dodatnih 12%.

Pad s 73 centa na 45 centa u kratkom roku.

Da stvar bude još zamršenija, NASDAQ-ova pravila kotacije su, mislim (?), da cijena dionice ne smije biti ispod 1 dolara…

TBS International Continues Discussions With Its Bankers

TBS International plc (NASDAQ: TBSI – News) announced today that it is continuing its discussions with its consortium of bankers to restructure its bank debt and alleviate some of the pressure on its cash flow. The discussions continue to focus on reaching agreements with all of the Company’s different lending syndicates.

While our discussions with our lenders have not reached the stage where the terms of a restructuring have been fully agreed upon, we are continuing to meet all of our obligations to our vendors, shippers and consignees even though our lenders have made it clear that they would not agree to a restructuring in which any value were attributed to our common equity.

Although we cannot assure you that agreement will be reached, negotiations continue to take a positive tone. We have a forbearance in place through December 15, 2011 and are exploring the possibilities for an extension thereof to allow the Company and its bankers to continue negotiating a more permanent solution.

During this period we want to remind all of our customers, vendors and business partners that our business continues as usual with all vendors being paid in the normal course on a timely basis.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/TBS-International-Continues-iw-2427256388.html?x=0&l=1

zna li netko kako posluju asfalteri, Šipan i Mokošica, isplate li se ili su gubitaši što bi značilo da ih se može možda i rješit ili….??

nekad je novi brod značio veliku zaradu!
danas novi brod znači 0 ili poslovanje s gubitkom!
dolazak novog broda prije je razlog za pad nego rast cijene dionice jer je čisti keš prebačen u imovinu koja gubi na vrijednosti i stvara gubitak!

Oprostite kolege, nisam u ovoj dionici oddavno, a htio bih se pozabaviti malo jer je situacija postala zanimljiva, pa samo ako mi netko tko je upućen može u par crtica obijasniti cijelu situaciju i mišljenje zbog čega je ovako potonula

Hvala unaprijed

1. dobro je da nisi (blago tebi),
2. situacija postala zanimljiva? situacija je ista već dulje vrijeme, dakle ništa zanimljivo se nije dogodilo,
3. mahom su svi brodari potonuli. takva je situacija u svijetu.