Way Better Than The BDI: Watch Chinese Iron Ore Demand Falling

If anything might smash global markets right now, it would be a China implosion, not a US one. Rather than watch the flawed Baltic Dry Index, the better place to watch for a China slow-down is directly via its consumption of commodities.

Notably, Chinese steel prices have fallen 20-25% since their August peak, and a survey from Danske Bank shows that iron ore imports are expected to fall. If these expectations materialize, it could be an early sign of a Chinese slow-down.

Danske Bank: "Participants in our monthly survey on Chinese iron ore imports expect the import level to fall to 48 million tonnes during October and November (compared with the record level of 58 million tonnes in July). There is clearly a more negative tone in our survey this month than last month"

oho što smo se raspisali, davno ovo nevidjeh. to znaći samo jedno, ponovo velik interes za dionice ATPL. dakle sutra izlazimo na megdan i kupujemo ili prodavamo. bit će to velik promet.

Baltic Dry Index Down 45% From High in June

Some investors see the Baltic Dry Index, a proxy for the shipping rates for dry bulk cargoes, as an indicator of international trade activity. BDI is admittedly noisy, and so needs to be interpreted along with other information.

Chinese imports have been a driving factor in commodities demand, which drives the BDI. The price of imported iron ire has dropped below $100 a ton and may fall further.
The slump had sparked panic among iron ore traders, who might now rush to clear their stocks, which could drive prices even lower.

The price for 63 percent grade Indian fine ore was US$95 to US$97 per ton on August 24 on a cost and freight basis, down from US$110 per ton on August 10, according to industry consultancy Mysteel.

“The price drop was caused by an increase in steel and iron ore stocks at mills and sea ports and a decline in steel prices,” Xu Guangjian, analyst with the Umetal Research Institute.

The slump had sparked panic among iron ore traders, who might now rush to clear their stocks, which could drive prices even lower, he said.

Mysteel analyst Xu Xiangchun said iron ore prices were still high compared with revised steel prices.
“The steel price has fallen to its early July level, but iron ore is still US$20 a ton higher than it was in early July,” he said, adding that iron ore will likely fall to about US$80 a ton.

The total stock of iron ore in 19 major Chinese ports was almost 73 million tons as of August 22, up 48 million tons on a week earlier, according to Umetal.

Evo jedno izvješće o naruđbama,isporučenim brodovima,i koliko ih je završilo u rezalištima

– FLEET STATISTICS –
Revised as of August 31st 2009

Uopće me u ovoj raspravi ne zanima cijena dionice ATPL i kakav će sutra biti promet, bid ili ask, nego da svi skupa pokušamo doći do nekog zaključka o (ne)korelaciji BDI-ja i S&P-a, te tomu priložiti što više različitih mišljenja, grafova, analiza, linkova…

Stoga molim Vjeka da sve ovo prebaci na onu temu o BDI-ju. I pozdrav posadi broda, hvala!

Baltic Dry Index as a leading indicator for stocks?

Trader Narrative in Baltic Dry Index continues leading the stock market has this interesting chart below. It states that ‘While the Baltic Dry Index is a leading economic indicator, lately, it has been also behaving as a leading indicator of the stock market.’ It adds: ‘In fact, if you compare the S&P 500 index for the past few years with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), it would seem that shipping rates have lead the equities from 1 to 3 months in both rallies and tops.’
However, while the chart at first sight looks good, it does not provide a convincing story.

Rather, the Baltic Dry Index seems to be more closely correlated to commodities.

As I suggested, commodities seem to be falling as the Chinese re-stocking cycle has ended (and with that shipping rates which rose during the re-stocking have eased again). If it is indeed due to less demand amid an ending of re-stocking (or due to increased supply) as opposed to lower end demand amid weak growth, then lower commodity prices as well as the drop in the CRB index are a positive for equities (as they increase the purchasing power of households and reduce costs for corporates in net-commodity consuming economies) while they are also rather positive for government bonds amid lower inflation pressures.

In turn, the drop in the Baltic Dry Index would also explain the diverging performance of bond yields/commmodities on the one side and equities on the other and does not necessarily need to be associated with lower equity prices.

Therefore, we can not yet tell whether indeed the significant drop in the Baltic Dry Index is a warning signal that stocks are about to fall or whether this is yet another positive (amid lower costs for shipping and for commodities) for the economy and therefore stock markets.

– vozarine trenutno pokrivaju 50% troškova

– do kraja godine dolazi brdo novogradnji

– BDI index pada danima i pitanje je gdje će se zaustaviti

– Kineske zalihe rasutih tereta na najvišoj razini u nazad dvije godine, dovoljne za nesmetan rad skoro dvi godine

Puno je toga lošega trenutno da bi dionica rasla a dajte vi meni argumente za rast.
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Napokon je netko rekao nešto što ne sliči na ide ovo gore…

– vozarine trenutno pokrivaju 50% troškova

– do kraja godine dolazi brdo novogradnji

– BDI index pada danima i pitanje je gdje će se zaustaviti

– Kineske zalihe rasutih tereta na najvišoj razini u nazad dvije godine, dovoljne za nesmetan rad skoro dvi godine

Puno je toga lošega trenutno da bi dionica rasla a dajte vi meni argumente za rast.
[/quote]

kolega koliko sam ja upoznat i koliko se sjecam kapetan je rekao da za pokrivanje troskova njima treba oko 20 000 hiljada dnevno. ako grijesim slobodno me ispravite….
[/quote]

To su samo troškovi brodova, nažalost atpl je i u nekim kreditima…

@ alt33

Kolega bogami bas strucno izelaborirano. Tehnicki i ekonomski. Sjedi 1.

@ lubanja

Kolega nije tacno da vozarine pokrivaju 50% . Pokrivaju više. Danas kad su vozarine na cca 20000 USD po vasoj racunici 40000 je breakeven.

@ Kolegama koji moje pisanje vezuju sa cijenom dionice

Dan brodarima poceo lose. Voljan sam pomoci. Koliko postova danas trebate?

nikada niti jedna, pa ni ATPL dionica nije dobro prošla u ovoj burzovnopsihološkoj fazi; velikog interesa i puno ćeretanja; čim se prebrojavaju matice, maziva, meneđeri i njiova rodbina, kineske namjere i otpadne vode, satelitske snimke i troškovi zaprašivanja štakora, nije dobro. prošla su vremena kada su bikovi i medvjedi valjali tjednima, sada su se pretvorili u lasice, zabiju svoje zubiće iznenada, napiju se krvi i brzo bjež dalje. Ova tema i dionica tako više postaju mjesto narodne mudrosti i stvaralaštva a manje analitike koja vodi zaradi.