Treba nam pomoc BDI-a, kakave su sanse da se malo zazeleni?

Je, zadnji radni dan je pred praznike. Inače, izvješće pogledaj na zse u petak 15. svibnja u popodnevnim satima, što je i zadnji dan zakonskog roka.
Simpatično je ovo , HT objavi izvješće a mi rastemo kao i zse.

@ Roger

Ne volim se bas bavit prognozama ali bi rekao sansa ispod 50%. Ovo dolje je malo pogolemo ali mislim da je dosta realno pa sa tim i interesantno. Ponunalo me pitanje o BDI-u da ga postam. Posebno je interesantan podatak o uvozu i proizvodnji rude u Kini. O svakom slucaju izgleda oporavak da no ne preko noci.

Dry bulk may revive, box lines not yet

Container lines are unlikely to achieve a profitable supply and demand balance in the next 12-18 months, while a recovery in dry bulk will be heavily reliant on China, an investment house has forecast. Macquarie Research, in its latest Asian shipping outlook, said global container volumes were likely to slip by only 1% this year, based on stronger economic growth in the second half. But overcapacity would eliminate the ability of lines to increase rates for the foreseeable future.

Head of shipping research Jon Windham said the downturn in the liner trades had both cyclical and structural components, with cyclical factors affected by the credit crisis. “We see little evidence that the market is anticipating the impact of the structural change on the industry’s long-term growth rate. In our opinion, low growth will be driven by an increasing portion of consumer spending occurring in Asia, geographically closer to production,” Mr Windham said. Macquarie pointed out that the global purchasing manager’s index, which measures the volume of industrial orders, had shown a modest resurgence in March. But the research house added that container demand was so far below absolute available capacity that even a modest rebound was unlikely to lead to a resumption of pricing power by carriers.

Mr Windham, who led a team of six shipping analysts to produce the latest 68-page report, said slow steaming was not the panacea for the industry as had been suggested. While slow steaming had been put forward as the “saviour for industry profitability”, cost savings are likely to passed on to customers, “providing no support to container line profitability”.

By comparison, “the bulk market has become even more of a China story in 2009”, Mr Windham said.

He added that the key demand drivers for the rest of 2009 would be “continuing signs of life in China’s real estate market, ongoing iron ore import substitution and a possible modest recovery in steel production outside of China”.

As a result, Macquarie forecast the Baltic Dry Index to average 2,000 for the rest of the year, rising to 3,000 in 2010 and 2011.

Mr Windham said Macquarie’s commodities team estimated that China’s iron ore imports rose 32% in the first quarter compared with last year, although they fell 53% in the rest of the world. “Continued strong demand in China, coupled with only a modest rebound in non-Chinese demand for ore in the second half of 2009, could lead to a strong bounce in bulk shipping demand,” Mr Windham said. The Macquarie team pointed out while China sourced 42% of its iron ore from domestic mines last year, this would fall to just 24% by 2012. “Large scale iron ore import substitution in China will be a driver of demand growth for bulk shipping capacity over the next two or three years, in our opinion,” the team said.

The impact of demand on the liner shipping and dry bulk markets has led Macquarie to reassess its stock recommendations. “We currently favour diversified and low-cost dry bulk shipping companies over the container shipping firms based on current prices,” Mr Windham said.

Mitsui OSK Lines, Thoresen Thai Agencies, China Shipping Development are top outperformers, while Neptune Orient Lines, Wan Hai Lines and Yang Ming Marine Transport are the top underperforming companies rated by Macquarie.

hvala Tech na trudu

Puno ovakvih članaka sam pročitao u zadnje vrijeme, od ljudi koji bi trebali biti u businessu, no međutim nemogu se oteti dojmu da isti broj članaka kola po internetu koji govori o tome kako Kina nije dovoljna… Ko će ga znat…

Apsolutno Kina nije dovoljna ali je bitna. I sam njen unutrasnji rast je generator trzista. Kina danas nije problem. Problem su kupci Kineskih proizvoda.

Kako stoje futuresi za BDI? Hvala!

izvješće ide brodom, i stići će uskoro. [lol]

Baltic Exchange Dry Index 1786 UP 14
BCI Baltic Exchange Capesize Index 2348 UP 6
BPI Baltic Exchange Panamax Index 1523 UP 54
BSI Baltic Exchange Supramax Index 1427 DOWN 11
BHSI Baltic Exchange Handysize Index 693 DOWN 1

Kratkoročno ali i dugoročno Kina je radi ono što bi svaka zemlja koja to može i trebala raditi.

1. Kupovina ruda kada su one jeftine
2. Generiranje zaliha istih
3. Ulaganje u svoju infrastrukturu

A sve to mislim da je dovoljno kako bi Kina kada zamašnjak recesije stane, dobila pole position u industriji i proizvodnji. Amerika je već odavno, osim na papiru, postala industrijski mastodont koji gubi utrku s Kinom…

Prije par godina izašlo je par članaka u našin i stranim novinama s spektakularnim naslovima tipa "kad SAD kihne, čitav svijet je prehlađen" ja bih dodao "A kad Kina kihne, čitav svjet je bolestan"…

Kina je u 2007.g. preuzela treće mjesto svjetske ekonomije od njemačke, prvo i drugo zauzimaju SAD i JAPAN. Njemačka s 85 milijuna stanovnika je bila treča ekonomija svijeta…. Što bi tek Kina mogla biti s 1,3 Milijarde ljudi – milijarde. Indija ima 1 milijardu. SAD i Japan zajedno imaju pola milijarde.

Mislim da ćemo možda čak i u slijedećih deset godina najveći kupci kineskih proizvoda biti upravo oni sami…

Možda malo off topic…

Mozda je trenutno na obradi u photoshopu ili je toliko dobro da ne zele da nekoga strefi kap od veselja pa odlazu objavu.

Paradoksalno ali jedno od najbogatijih zemalja s prirodnim resursima je upravo Kina. Ono što meni nije jasno zašto uvoze ako imaju svoje?