| Oznaka | Vrijednost | Promet | Količina | Kupovna | Prodajna | Promjena |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ATPL | 49,00 | 21.266 | 434 | 49,00 | 49,50 | 0,00% |
Izgleda da interes za ovu dionicu slabi. Nasao sam je tek na 3 stranici. Zadnje dvije godine nije se desavalo da se makne sa prve. Ima za to i razloga. Evo ponovo "MOJ" doprinos eventualnom padu. Ne slazem se bas da su handy-ji blizak kompetitor panamaxima.
Panamax bulker oversupply – A surplus of more than 500 panamax bulkers by 2011 is predicted by researchers at DVB Bank
Slowing demand and a growing volume of tonnage over the next two years will result in the widening supply and demand gap, says the German-Dutch transport specialist.
Its base case prediction assumes that all vessels over 25 years – some 290 ships of 18m dwt – will be scrapped over the coming four years and that around 19% of the total panamax orderbook will be cancelled.
DVB adds that although there have been signs of relative improvement in demand for bulk carriers, fear remain that increased tonnage supply will suffocate freight markets and thus values.
The bank voices its concerns for panamaxes despite the 39.8m dwt orderbook representing around 37% of the 107m dwt fleet, substantial albeit small compared with close to 100% for capesize bulkers.
But panamaxes have a close competitor in handymaxes where the 52m dwt orderbook represents roughly 75% of the existing fleet. Also, because handymaxes are geared at sizes approaching 60,000-dwt, they can command a freight rates premium in some regions.
DVB in its latest panamax bulk carrier market outlook says history shows that with an estimated 16% fall in utilization between 2009 and 2011, freight rates are expected to hover around an average $10,000 per day.
“These rates are well below the required BE (breakeven) levels needed by shipowners to operate their assets bought at very high prices during the boom years,” said the bank.
It says for a panamax bought in 2002-2003 at $20m, breakeven is estimated at around $11,000 per day assuming 100% financing for 15 years at 6% with an Opex of $5,000 per day.
But for a $50m ship breakeven rises to about $21,000 per day.
Also, all major charterers have either renegotiated or will be renegotiating terms as continued low demand eats into their bottom line.
Scrapping along with lay-ups and yard cancellations, are set to increase during the next two years. But there is a physical limit to demolition yard capacity.
Certainly a question mark hangs over how many panamax newbuildings on order will materialise. DVB, which uses raw data from various sources including its own, says 31% (12.4m dwt/158 vessels) are at start-up yards, including greenfield sites and where yards are being expanded.
It is estimated that 28m dwt or 70% have yet to commence construction. Also, China has 40% of the total panamax orderbook but the probability of greenfield yards there performing “looks rather bleak.”
In 2009 some 8m dwt (106 vessels) is expected to join the existing fleet of 1,477 vessels and a further “unprecedented” 15m dwt (189 vessels) in 2010. The 17m dwt (216 vessels) in the orderbook for 2011 and onwards is subject to higher cancellation probability.
During 2008, panamax bulkers carried nearly 647m tonnes or around 24% of total dry bulk seaborne trade, says DVB. They handled an estimated 13.6% of the iron ore trade of 809m tonnes, 34% of the 808m tonnes coal trade and 45% of the 316m tonnes grain trade.
Ships are currently restricted to about 294.1 metres in length overall and 32.3m beam to pass through Panama Canal locks but canal expansion means vessels of small capes dimensions, with a length of 366m, beam 49m and draft 15m will soon be able to transit.
Published : March 26, 2009
Izgleda da interes za ovu dionicu slabi. Nasao sam je tek na 3 stranici. Zadnje dvije godine nije se desavalo da se makne sa prve. Ima za to i razloga. Evo ponovo "MOJ" doprinos eventualnom padu. Ne slazem se bas da su handy-ji blizak kompetitor panamaxima.
Panamax bulker oversupply – A surplus of more than 500 panamax bulkers by 2011 is predicted by researchers at DVB Bank
Slowing demand and a growing volume of tonnage over the next two years will result in the widening supply and demand gap, says the German-Dutch transport specialist.
Its base case prediction assumes that all vessels over 25 years – some 290 ships of 18m dwt – will be scrapped over the coming four years and that around 19% of the total panamax orderbook will be cancelled.
DVB adds that although there have been signs of relative improvement in demand for bulk carriers, fear remain that increased tonnage supply will suffocate freight markets and thus values.
The bank voices its concerns for panamaxes despite the 39.8m dwt orderbook representing around 37% of the 107m dwt fleet, substantial albeit small compared with close to 100% for capesize bulkers.
But panamaxes have a close competitor in handymaxes where the 52m dwt orderbook represents roughly 75% of the existing fleet. Also, because handymaxes are geared at sizes approaching 60,000-dwt, they can command a freight rates premium in some regions.
DVB in its latest panamax bulk carrier market outlook says history shows that with an estimated 16% fall in utilization between 2009 and 2011, freight rates are expected to hover around an average $10,000 per day.
“These rates are well below the required BE (breakeven) levels needed by shipowners to operate their assets bought at very high prices during the boom years,” said the bank.
It says for a panamax bought in 2002-2003 at $20m, breakeven is estimated at around $11,000 per day assuming 100% financing for 15 years at 6% with an Opex of $5,000 per day.
But for a $50m ship breakeven rises to about $21,000 per day.
Also, all major charterers have either renegotiated or will be renegotiating terms as continued low demand eats into their bottom line.
Scrapping along with lay-ups and yard cancellations, are set to increase during the next two years. But there is a physical limit to demolition yard capacity.
Certainly a question mark hangs over how many panamax newbuildings on order will materialise. DVB, which uses raw data from various sources including its own, says 31% (12.4m dwt/158 vessels) are at start-up yards, including greenfield sites and where yards are being expanded.
It is estimated that 28m dwt or 70% have yet to commence construction. Also, China has 40% of the total panamax orderbook but the probability of greenfield yards there performing “looks rather bleak.”
In 2009 some 8m dwt (106 vessels) is expected to join the existing fleet of 1,477 vessels and a further “unprecedented” 15m dwt (189 vessels) in 2010. The 17m dwt (216 vessels) in the orderbook for 2011 and onwards is subject to higher cancellation probability.
During 2008, panamax bulkers carried nearly 647m tonnes or around 24% of total dry bulk seaborne trade, says DVB. They handled an estimated 13.6% of the iron ore trade of 809m tonnes, 34% of the 808m tonnes coal trade and 45% of the 316m tonnes grain trade.
Ships are currently restricted to about 294.1 metres in length overall and 32.3m beam to pass through Panama Canal locks but canal expansion means vessels of small capes dimensions, with a length of 366m, beam 49m and draft 15m will soon be able to transit.
Published : March 26, 2009
ASU,CIJENIM TVOJ RAD,ALI BURZA JE NEŠTO SASVIM DRUGO..DIONICA SE KUPUJE KAD JE LOŠE,A PRODAJE SE KAD JE DOBRO.DAKLE,sada je loše…čista logika,pusti brojeve..da,pao je interes za ovu dionicu svakako,a slučajno je druga najlikvidnija na zse…
@Techman
Ako može ovaj članak u cijelosti sa Lloydsa
New cargoes bring fresh lift to Atlantic panamax rates
Liz McCarthy – Wednesday 25 March 2009
PANAMAX Atlantic rates are rising as market sentiment improves and fresh cargo inquiries come out, writes Liz McCarthy
Brokers reported that the market had found its bottom level and were optimistic that rates would continue to climb this week.
“The week started on a rather active note with some fresh inquiry entering the market,” …
@alt333…..dionice se kupuju kad je sitacija loša kao npr. trenutno za brodare ali činjenica je da se zadnjih dana uložio novac u građevinare , investitor bi već sada bio dobar barem 20% , dokle tko je god ostao na ATPL (djelom) kao i ja tu je ostao oko nule……
The Baltic Exchange
Daily Summary of Baltic Exchange Dry Indices
26 March 2009
Baltic Exchange Dry Index TM 1714 (DOWN 26)
Baltic Exchange Capesize Index TM 2134 (DOWN 35)
Baltic Exchange Panamax Index TM 1531 (DOWN 13)
Baltic Exchange Supramax Index TM 1365 (DOWN 33)
Baltic Exchange Handysize Index TM 717 (DOWN 9)
@ conan
je, a da si uložio u onih 7 brojeva u onom kiosku preko puta poraslo bi ti 100000%. uvijek je negdje moglo bolje.
@techman
dobro je da se tako marljivo piše o budućem oversupllyju, sve dok ti nama svaki dan nadješ za postati poneki članak o tome mi možemo mirno spavati. pa makar usput opustio forum. što više straha sada, to više lovuše kasnije.
@alt333…..dionice se kupuju kad je sitacija loša kao npr. trenutno za brodare ali činjenica je da se zadnjih dana uložio novac u građevinare , investitor bi već sada bio dobar barem 20% , dokle tko je god ostao na ATPL (djelom) kao i ja tu je ostao oko nule……
zašto gledamo druge,pa ne moraju sad svi u dlkv i igh zato što je toliko poraslo..porast će i atpl kad se poprave okolnosti,a to može biti već idući vikend.ja sam kupio dlkv po 260,00 a prodao ga po 280,00,sad je 340,00,pa neću sam sebi sad čupat kosu što sam ga prodao,za to sam uzeo atpl po 630,00..u međuvremenu mi stoji masa love u ht-u,ušao po 202-203..mogao sam sve vratiti što sam dosad izgubio da sam bio u građevinaru…netko je bolji,netko lošiji,nek budem samo jednom bolji nego lošiji,uspio sam–to je rekao kostolany..
istina…
zašto gledamo druge,pa ne moraju sad svi u dlkv i igh zato što je toliko poraslo..porast će i atpl kad se poprave okolnosti,a to može biti već idući vikend.ja sam kupio dlkv po 260,00 a prodao ga po 280,00,sad je 340,00,pa neću sam sebi sad čupat kosu što sam ga prodao,za to sam uzeo atpl po 630,00..u međuvremenu mi stoji masa love u ht-u,ušao po 202-203..mogao sam sve vratiti što sam dosad izgubio da sam bio u građevinaru…netko je bolji,netko lošiji,nek budem samo jednom bolji nego lošiji,uspio sam–to je rekao kostolany..
[/quote]
sad svima ide trejd a nije vrijeme za to…..i ja jutros prodao dlkv,,,jednom treba kapitalizirat dobit….
ASU,CIJENIM TVOJ RAD,ALI BURZA JE NEŠTO SASVIM DRUGO..DIONICA SE KUPUJE KAD JE LOŠE,A PRODAJE SE KAD JE DOBRO.DAKLE,sada je loše…čista logika,pusti brojeve..da,pao je interes za ovu dionicu svakako,a slučajno je druga najlikvidnija na zse.
Kolega zahvaljujem na komentaru koji je korektan i drago mi je da cijenite moj rad. Ipak dvije stvari moram pojasniti. Mislio sam na interes na nasem Forumu. Cinjenica je da se godinama nije skidala sa prve stranice kao i JDPL. Sad je nalazim na trecoj a na JDPL vodim monolog.
Drugi dio zasluzuje vise pozornosti. Apsolutno se slazem kad treba kupovati dionice. To nismo izmislili ni Vi ni ja. Ali isto tako treba se voditi još jednim načelom koje nismo izmislili ni Vi ni ja.
DIONICA SE KUPUJE KAD JE LOŠE ALI SE NE KUPUJE KAD SE OCEKUJE JOS LOSIJE.
Pozdrav
Evo ga!
New cargoes bring fresh lift to Atlantic panamax rates
Srijeda 25 ožujak 2009
PANAMAX Atlantic rates are rising as market sentiment improves and fresh cargo inquiries come out, writes Liz McCarthy .
Brokers reported that the market had found its bottom level and were optimistic that rates would continue to climb this week.
“The week started on a rather active note with some fresh inquiry entering the market,” said ICAP Shipping in its daily report.
Owners were asking for $20,000 per day for fronthaul trips, shipping cargoes from the Atlantic to Asia, and around $15,000 per day for transatlantic voyages, said one London broker.
Brokers said they had been busy this week, with activity increasing significantly compared to business concluded in the past fortnight.
“It’s been a bit of a crazy day. A lot of rates are exchanging hands,” said one London broker. “Everyone is willing to commit to something. In general, owners are pushing a bit and they’ve started discussing higher rates.”
She said the lift in capesize rates seen at the end of last week had helped push panamax rates up slightly.
An improvement in the panamax paper market had also created positive sentiment in the market. This was mirrored in the Baltic Exchange’s fronthaul rate, which climbed for a second day to $19,386 per day. This figure is more than $10,000 below the 2009-high the route reached two weeks ago of $29,943 per day.
Its transatlantic route rate also rose to $14,263 per day. A high of $21,575 was achieved a fortnight ago.
Owners in the Atlantic were still avoiding taking trips to Asia and were reported to be holding back.
“I think if we see the Pacific improving for the rest of the week then owners will start changing their ideas,” the broker said.
Cargoes that need to be delivered to the Far East had opened up in the Atlantic but would have to wait a couple of days to be fixed, she added.
Most owners were looking for short transatlantic trips, taking grain from the US Gulf to the east Mediterranean. Grain from east coast South America was only destined for Asia, the broker said.
Bauxite coming out of West Africa had also boosted activity in the market.
Tonnage lists in the Atlantic basin were still tight, which was helping keep rates steady, said brokers.
In the transatlantic market, US commodities group Cargill took the 74,275 dwt, 2001-built Tian Tong Feng from La Coruna in Spain for a trip via east coast South America and redelivery in Skaw-Cape Passero for $14,250 per day.
STX Pan Ocean booked the 69,163 dwt, 1997-built YM Cultivation for a fronthaul trip, with delivery in San Ciprian between March 23-26 for a trip via the US Gulf to Singapore-Japan for $19,500 per day.
Rates are expected to improve for the rest of the week, but any gains will be on a small scale. “There’s nothing too exciting, but its a little more positive than the last two weeks,” one London broker said.
Koliki je BDI? Na Drysu je neki cudan datum
256March 2009
Baltic Dry Index (BDI) -26 1714