@tech
Obzirom na gore rečeno kakvu ulogu će odigrati indija, može li to tržište biti svojevrsna slamka spasa? Tnx

Baš zato spominjem indiju kao igrača, jer nikakvih informacija nema od njih, svi se orjentiraju na kineze. Ako dobijete kakav info bio bih zahvalan

Kad paničari vide DRYS u minusu pa počnu lupat po bidu ATPL, a ne znaju ni zašto…

DryShips Inc. Reports Its Financial and Operating Results for the Fourth Quarter and Year Ended December 31, 2008

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/DryShips-Inc-Reports-Its-iw-14736429.html
Wednesday March 25, 2009

Vaš link

Još ćemo trpjeti medu 4 mjeseca. [sealed]

Kakva je sad ovo nelikvidnost odjednom. Kao da cijela burza čeka BDI.

Kad bi gledali taj članak onda je kriza trebala već završiti,pogledaj zadnji graf,piše da kriza već traje 190 dana,a datum objave članka je 8.7.2008,prije skoro 9mjeseci,ili ukupno traje nekih 440 dana

A vidi ovaj članak,star dva dana,čovjek ulaže u tržišta u razvoju i upravlja
fondom od 20 milijardi dolara
Mark Mobius: Počinje era bikova!
http://www.seebiz.eu/hr/burze/mark-mobius-pocinje-era-bikova!,40804.html

Gospodin Mark Mobius predviđa početak ere bikova, a zamisli s njim se ne slažu "experti" Citigroupa. [lol]

Lloyds List based on DVB research of the Panamax fleet.

AT LEAST 19% of the total 511 panamax bulk carriers on order will be
cancelled in the next four years.
A new report from German bank DVB Group has forecast that by 2011
there will be 500 surplus panamaxes (60,000 dwt-83,000 dwt) in the
market, as demand slows and fleet capacity grows.
This figure assumed that 19% of the current orderbook would be
cancelled and all ships over 25 years of age would be scrapped.

Over the next two years, we anticipate to see increased scrapping,
lay up and cancellations, said the bank’s research division in its
Panamax Bulk Carrier Market Outlook report.
Owners and shipyards will have to negotiate for the sake of the
shipping industry, however each party has vested interests and
therefore no predefined worked out solution is possible
The current panamax fleet stands at 107m dwt, or 1,477 ships, DVB
said. By comparison the orderbook represents 38% of the current fleet,
with 39.8m dwt, or 511 vessels due for delivery over the next five
years.
In 2010 alone, an “unprecedented” 189 panamax vessels are scheduled
for delivery, the report said.
Although the disparity is large between the number of potential
candidates for scrapping of about 18m dwt and the orderbook of 40m
dwt, it is strongly believed that many vessels will not be built at
all, said DVB.
Of the total panamax orderbook, 31% of the ships are due to be built
at “start up” yards, which are either greenfield or expansion yards,
the report said.

Chinese shipbuilding yards hold 40% of the total panamax newbuilding
contracts, with Japan’s yards in close second with 38% of orders
placed.
Established Chinese yards only account for 13% of panamax orders, with
25% of contracts held by China’s newly established and greenfield yards.
The probability of greenfield yards, at least in China, performing
their contracts looks rather bleak, said DVB. It added that many were
struggling to arrange refund guarantees.

An analyst from the bank’s research department said he expected that
none of the newbuildings on order at greenfield yards would ever be
delivered. In total, the report estimated that 70% of newbuilding contracts have
not yet commenced construction.
“It will eventually be left to the market forces to balance the
questions in the good ‘old-fashioned’ capitalistic way.”
DVB said that in January this year, 10 panamaxes, representing 658,000
dwt were sold for demolition, compared with the total number of 13
panamaxes scrapped in the whole of 2008.

The report anticipates that 290 panamax vessels, representing 18m dwt,
will be scrapped over the next four years. An analyst said that this
number could increase but the market would be restricted by the amount
of vessels that ship recycling yards could take on for demolition.
A number of owners with newbuildings due for delivery may need to keep
their older vessels in operation to balance out their cashflow though,
which could keep scrapping levels slightly lower.
Instead of replacing the old with the new, owners will need to
accumulate as much money from trading to pay back debt.

DVB has predicted that there will be a 16% drop in utilisation rates
between 2009-2011, which could keep average panamax freight rates as
low as $10,000 per day.
These rates are well below the required breakeven levels needed by
shipowners to operate their assets bought at very high prices during
the boom years, the report said.

One in five panamaxes on order will be cancelled

It is estimated that for panamaxes built between 2002-2003 for $20m,
the minimum freight rate needed to maintain breakeven levels is
$11,000 per day.

For a ship purchased in the last two years, when newbuilding prices
reached their peak, the breakeven level increases to nearly $21,000
per day.

“Although the huge amounts of capital injection by governments around
the world will help in the long run, unfortunately, things are
expected to get worse before getting better,” DVB said.
PANAMAX DELIVERIES

2009 93 ships 7.7m dwt

2010 189 ships 14.8m dwt

2011 142 ships 11m dwt

2012 52 ships 4m dwt

2013 18 ships 1.4m dwt

2014 4 ships 328,900 dwt

Total 511 ships 39.8m dw t

Source: DVB Group — Research &
Strategic Planning
DVB GROUP FORECASTS

• 19% of total panamax orderbook will be cancelled;

• 290 panamax ships over 25 years’ old will be scrapped in the next
four years;

• panamax freight rates will stick at around $10,000 per day for the
next two years.

UPDATE 1-DryShips posts $1.02 bln fourth-quarter loss

Pending the outcome of such discussions, the company has reclassified about $1.8 billion in debt as short-term.

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssIndustryMaterialsUtilitiesNews/idUSBNG42968020090325

Pa nek netko kaže da su amerikanci normalni, DRYS se tržio u rasponu od preko 20% u premarketu… [lol]