Vjerojatno je tako. Ja dokupio, možda nisam trebao.

Vjerojatno je tako. Ja dokupio, možda nisam trebao.
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A zamisli one od jučer na 65x. Kod njih nema ovo "možda"

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evo kad ste krenuli o tome, zanimalo bi me kako bi ti prokomentirao sljedeći članak od 13.2. još ga je tada skovacin postao na forum ali je bio sasvim ignoriran. dio koji se odnosi na ovu diskusiju pejstam.
However, we should not take data out of context, as the old ships are being scrapped at the same time new ships are entering service. During the recent shipping boom, almost no scrapping took place as ship owners extended the services of old ships to profit from high shipping rate. Now that shipping rates have fallen, there is a sudden rush to send all the old ships to scrap yards in order to bring in cash liquidity and enhance the balance sheets. In just two month, four million DWT tons worth of ships were sent for demolition, which is more than the last few years combined. Scrapping old ships is surely faster than building new ships!
The numbers from the UNCTAD review need to be taken in context. As of end of 2007, there were 10053 new ships and 495M DMT tons on the order books, including 222M DWT tons of dry bulk carriers. That was 72 times higher than it was in 2002 – 72 times! The global dry bulk fleet is about 600M DWT tons in size, so assuming a new ship takes two years to build, 222M worth of new ships will be build in two years, not counting scrapping, the increase of global fleet will be 222M/600M = 37%. That’s how some analysts figured the 40% increase.
However, the number is wrong – the average ship lifespan is about 20 years. So normal scrapping, due to aging, would remove 10% of the fleet in two years. The increase in the scrapping of over-age ships could remove up to 20% of the fleet in two years. Even if all of the new orders were built, when you subtract 20% of the scrapping, the global fleet would only increase 17%.
However, don’t expect 222M worth of new ships in the next two years. Due to low shipping rates and a lack of financing, more than one-third of ship orders have already been cancelled. More are being cancelled or delayed. Read the Hellenic Shipping News – shipyards around the world are in very bad shape, and many could go bankrupt if they don’t get any help.
Question: If shipyards had normal business in 2002, and their order book is 72 times bigger than the 2002 level, then why are shipyards in bad shape now? Even if 30%, 50% or even 90% of orders were cancelled, the number of remaining orders would still be much larger than the 2002 level – not to mention the profit from cancellation fees. There are not a lot of shipbuilders in the world, and global ship building capacity could surely not have increased 72% from 2002 levels as there is not enough space, materials, building capacity or financial backing to build 10,053 ships at the same time, and then deliver them within two years.

Question: If shipyards had normal business in 2002, and their order book is 72 times bigger than the 2002 level, then why are shipyards in bad shape now? Even if 30%, 50% or even 90% of orders were cancelled, the number of remaining orders would still be much larger than the 2002 level – not to mention the profit from cancellation fees. There are not a lot of shipbuilders in the world, and global ship building capacity could surely not have increased 72% from 2002 levels as there is not enough space, materials, building capacity or financial backing to build 10,053 ships at the same time, and then deliver them within two years.

Someone must get the numbers terribly wrong. In any case, you can be rest assured that if shipbuilders are on the brink of bankruptcy, then we will NOT see any rush of new ships joining the global fleet in the next two
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Da, sjećam se članka, negdje u nastavku je tip spominjao i prosječnu starost HANDYja od 20+ godina kojih je večina za rezališta… zbog "vala" visokih vozarina u 2008 su produžili posao.
Iz Techmanovih reporta se vidi da 90-tak brodova na mjesec završi u limenkama.
Koliko ih se trenutno napravi?
Ako3000 podjelimo sa mjes

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nije bitno što "neki" tamo rade, nemojte gledati druge, jer ako investirate, investirate svoj novac, i ako smatrate da dionica vrijedi, možete investirati, a ako smatrate da ne vrijedi možete prodati.
Isto tako što, možda neko koči rast prema gore, postoje i dionice za koje opet "neko" radi suprotno, ne dopušta da idu prema dole. Nemojte dopustiti da vas neko nasamari.
Odluke drugih investitora, ili nekakve špekulacije vam nikako ne bi trebale biti mjerila za investiranje.

ajde neka netko odgovori kad bi trebala biti isplata drugog dijela dividende….

sretno svima…

vrati se malo unazad, netko je već pisao o tome

pa već imamo decoupling, velika većina dionica je ispod svojih lowova negdje iz prosinca. a atpl debelo iznad. više ne treba ni očekivati ovog časa, ali uskoro vjerojatno da. vozarine su bile na recesijskim razinama sredinom rujna. nakon toga je sigurno bar pola daljnjeg pada bilo zbog kreditne krize, a najviše pola zbog produbljivanja recesije. a k tome kina nije u recesiji i ne izgleda da bi mogla i biti.

puno toga se ovdje piše pa ne skače svatko svakome, ok jasno mi je da ti ne znaš inače ti ne bi bio problem…

Trenutno se na mjesec izreže oko 90 tak brodova, i ako nastave tim ritmom u 2009, 2010 i 2011 ce ih ispiliti oko 3000 komada, vjerojatno puno manjih nego što se grade – al po broju brodova ostajemo tu negdje na istom… Ostaje pitanje nosivosti.