Mogli bi danas jako blizu 2200

Čini mi se da svi samo čekaju današnji BDI sa prstom na okidaču…

Izgleda da si mogao i jeftinije. [sad]
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Pa šta da kažem, mogao sam, al’ eto bolje i danas po 640, nego prije mjesec dana po cca 750, a i nije neka količina, 18 komada. Nek se vrti. [smiley]

Moglo bi biti iznenađenje

Sampras, procjenjuje se da bi oko 25 mil dwt moglo otici u rezaliste ove godine. Novogradnji ima vise, nazalost.

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Nažalost u pravu si, puno je veća tonaža novogradnji nego brodova što će u staro željezo, međutim to još uvijek ne mora značiti crni scenarij.
Samo da podsjetim, lani u kolovozu mali miljun analitičara prognozirao je stabilnu 2009. godinu za bulk brodare i prosjek BDI od 6500, a gdje smo danas znamo da "juče" ne spominjem. Pa eto i kap.Jerković je izjavio onu o planiranom gubitku od 30 miljuna dolara za 2009 (ali uz uvjet da BDI ostane na onim najnižim razinama). Vjerujem da će FI 1Q iznenaditi mnoge, a FI 2Q bi ponovo mogao navući smiješak na lica isprepadanih dioničara.

"Samo da podsjetim, lani u kolovozu mali miljun analitičara prognozirao je stabilnu 2009. godinu za bulk brodare i prosjek BDI od 6500"

" Da analitičari nešto znaju bili bi investitori" W. Buffett

Toliko o tim znalcima…….

Sampras, procjenjuje se da bi oko 25 mil dwt moglo otici u rezaliste ove godine. Novogradnji ima vise, nazalost.

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evo kad ste krenuli o tome, zanimalo bi me kako bi ti prokomentirao sljedeći članak od 13.2. još ga je tada skovacin postao na forum ali je bio sasvim ignoriran. dio koji se odnosi na ovu diskusiju pejstam.

However, we should not take data out of context, as the old ships are being scrapped at the same time new ships are entering service. During the recent shipping boom, almost no scrapping took place as ship owners extended the services of old ships to profit from high shipping rate. Now that shipping rates have fallen, there is a sudden rush to send all the old ships to scrap yards in order to bring in cash liquidity and enhance the balance sheets. In just two month, four million DWT tons worth of ships were sent for demolition, which is more than the last few years combined. Scrapping old ships is surely faster than building new ships!

The numbers from the UNCTAD review need to be taken in context. As of end of 2007, there were 10053 new ships and 495M DMT tons on the order books, including 222M DWT tons of dry bulk carriers. That was 72 times higher than it was in 2002 – 72 times! The global dry bulk fleet is about 600M DWT tons in size, so assuming a new ship takes two years to build, 222M worth of new ships will be build in two years, not counting scrapping, the increase of global fleet will be 222M/600M = 37%. That’s how some analysts figured the 40% increase.

However, the number is wrong – the average ship lifespan is about 20 years. So normal scrapping, due to aging, would remove 10% of the fleet in two years. The increase in the scrapping of over-age ships could remove up to 20% of the fleet in two years. Even if all of the new orders were built, when you subtract 20% of the scrapping, the global fleet would only increase 17%.

However, don’t expect 222M worth of new ships in the next two years. Due to low shipping rates and a lack of financing, more than one-third of ship orders have already been cancelled. More are being cancelled or delayed. Read the Hellenic Shipping News – shipyards around the world are in very bad shape, and many could go bankrupt if they don’t get any help.
Question: If shipyards had normal business in 2002, and their order book is 72 times bigger than the 2002 level, then why are shipyards in bad shape now? Even if 30%, 50% or even 90% of orders were cancelled, the number of remaining orders would still be much larger than the 2002 level – not to mention the profit from cancellation fees. There are not a lot of shipbuilders in the world, and global ship building capacity could surely not have increased 72% from 2002 levels as there is not enough space, materials, building capacity or financial backing to build 10,053 ships at the same time, and then deliver them within two years.

Question: If shipyards had normal business in 2002, and their order book is 72 times bigger than the 2002 level, then why are shipyards in bad shape now? Even if 30%, 50% or even 90% of orders were cancelled, the number of remaining orders would still be much larger than the 2002 level – not to mention the profit from cancellation fees. There are not a lot of shipbuilders in the world, and global ship building capacity could surely not have increased 72% from 2002 levels as there is not enough space, materials, building capacity or financial backing to build 10,053 ships at the same time, and then deliver them within two years.

Someone must get the numbers terribly wrong. In any case, you can be rest assured that if shipbuilders are on the brink of bankruptcy, then we will NOT see any rush of new ships joining the global fleet in the next two years.

Daily Summary of Baltic Exchange Dry Indices
5 March 2009

Baltic Exchange Dry Index TM 2167 (UP 83)
Baltic Exchange Capesize Index TM 2830 (UP 12)
Baltic Exchange Panamax Index TM 2096 (UP 195)
Baltic Exchange Supramax Index TM 1653 (UP 50)
Baltic Exchange Handysize Index TM 688 (UP 21)

Daily Summary of the Baltic Exchange Time Charter Routes
Rate($/Day) Change
BCI
Average of the T/C routes $28402 (UP 10)
BPI
Average of the T/C routes $16793 (UP 1563)
BSI
Average of the T/C routes $17286 (UP 524)
BHSI
Average of the T/C routes $9979 (UP 297)

Fino ga šibaju BDI i BPI prema gore zadnjih dana [thumbsup]

panamaxi podivljali…………….. ovo bi se trebalo odraziti na dionicu!

mislim da nam danas neće pomoći ni BDI jer će u americi mnogi htjeti kapitalizirati onih 30% od jučer…tako da se mi vrtimo u krug gledajući oko sebe …ujutro gledamo DAX u 14.00 gledamo premarket u americi pa BDI pa otvaranje amerike i sve u svemu uvijek nešto od toga nije savršeno pa ne odemo gore koliko bi mogli ili padnemo …
treba gledati isključivo AP i njezine rezultate…sve ostalo je zavaravanje koje će kad tad doći na naplatu…ni u americi kad je potop ne padaju svi…mi smo malo tržište pa kud turci tud i mali Mujo…i tako da ako je trend padajući padamo i mi trebali ili ne,…naravno nekima to odgovara pa šute i kupuju ali zbog onih malih i neiskusnih treba biti pošten i reći kako AP vrijedi više nego se trenutno trži …

A niko da se maši…..