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From Lloyds List [sealed]

Ore price talks hold capesize market to ransom

Keith Wallis – ponedjeljak 16 veljača 2009

THE resurgent capesize market faltered and ran out of steam at the end of last week as iron ore traders stopped working the telephones and cargoes dried up, writes Keith Wallis in Hong Kong.

After rising to around $39,500 last week, the average of the four time charter routes had fallen back to close on Friday at $33,427 per day.

“After roaring ahead in the early part of last week, the capesize market is coming off again,” said one Hong Kong-based broker who preferred not to be named.

“Purchasers decided to stop buying and we’re not seeing as many inquiries from traders.”

The broker said that spot rates for a voyage from Western Australia to China, which had been around $11.30 per tonne at the start of the week, were now nudging $10 per tonne with the expectation they would fall further.

By comparison, rates for a transatlantic round voyage had fallen by more $6,000 to end Friday at $30,363 per day, while a fronthaul trip was worth $49,544 per day and a transpacific round voyage $37,308 per day.

The Hong Kong broker thought that one of the key reasons the physical market had slipped was concern about iron ore price discussions between Chinese steel mills and the big three producers, BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Vale.

“BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto have been driving the market in the past few weeks. Now they don’t seem to be active people are wondering what is going to happen with the price talks and how soon there is likely to be an agreement,” he said.

Another shipping specialist and former broker thought there would only be a sustained recovery in charter rates once China started consuming vast volumes of steel again.

“The sooner China’s Yuan4,000bn ($588bn) stimulus package kicks in, with its heavy emphasis on construction, the better for the shipping markets,” he said.

“China will need steel for railways, highways and building construction.”

The Hong Kong broker said that in the past week the long-term market in dry freight derivatives had not supported the physical rally, but he also believed paper’s level of influence on actual trades was often overstated.

“Paper has more influence, moving the market faster in any one direction, but it doesn’t make the market,” he said.

Another Hong Kong broker, who also requested anonymity, said period business remained healthy despite the wobble in the spot market.

“The period market has been quieter than the spot market, but there are plenty of inquiries,” he said, although he warned that many fixtures have since failed.

Fearnleys said owners of modern 170,000 dwt tonnage were seeking more than $35,000 per day for a one-year charter. Actual rates were a lot less, with Deiulemar reportedly fixing the Keros Warrior for 12 to 14 months at $22,500 per day, while TMT fixed the Cape Eregli for 11-13 months at $26,000 per day.

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—ajde ti genijalcu nešto pametnije

Recite kad je bila dividenda sa kojim datumom ?

hm, krenule špekulacije o isplati dividende a dionica pada…
kako pak sad to rekli bi neki s ovog foruma?!?

ma meni stvarno neki ljudi nisu jasni,već godinu i pol dana prodaju dionice isključivo sa gubitkom,onda dođe jedan pa drugi pa treći,i tako se pokrene lavina..ja sam se naučio pratiti burzu hladne glave,doduše opsujem ponekad da ne mogu prostije,a koga,to neću reći,ali valjda to i znate….

…da…jel može netko od "iskusnijih" sa ove dionice…prokomentirati kaj se događa…govrnatorm, leconte, rekvijem…netko od vas…

…da…jel može netko od "iskusnijih" sa ove dionice…prokomentirati kaj se događa…govrnatorm, leconte, rekvijem…netko od vas…
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Dečki čekaju na kupnji deep down… nemaju vremena za diskusiju

ajmo, najbrži postajte BDI da još poneko ustrtari pa još kupim i od njega…

JEL IMA NETKO BDI?