Ni meni se ne sviđa, ni najmanje. NM u minusu 15% a obzirom na long term ugovore i konzervativnu poslovnu politiku morao bi biti (kakvo takvo) relativno sigurno sklonište u ovakovim vremenima. Priznam da ne kužim tržište kapitala i prepuštam pisanje pametnjima, no neću prodavati na ovim razinama pa makar došli i na ispod 1000.

to je i ono sto mene cudi. NM na drugom mjestu (po padu) brodara…. a buducnost zagarantirana jos neko vrijeme (3-5 godina). Dobro, pri ovim razinama dy nije bas briljantan, ali nije ni za odbacit – 0.36 (5.40%).

A i kolega Flyer bi tu mogao uskociti
[smiley]

DRYS

Volume: 4,508,274
Avg Vol (3m): 2,954,580

NM trenutno ima P/E 1,91 a P/B ispod 1… [shocked]
Nije mi to jasno. Pa da im se zarada smanji na 1/5, i dalje bi pokazatelji bili pristojni.

Vaš link

Da sad imam račun kod nekog brokera vani, sigurno bih kupio par brodarskih dionica.

Pogledaj BDI Futures-e
http://www.imarex.com/home/bdi_futures_closing_prices

NM trenutno ima P/E 1,91 a P/B ispod 1… [shocked]
Nije mi to jasno. Pa da im se zarada smanji na 1/5, i dalje bi pokazatelji bili pristojni.

Vaš link

Da sad imam račun kod nekog brokera vani, sigurno bih kupio par brodarskih dionica.
[/quote]

NM trenutno ima flotu od nekih 30-ak brodova (neki su preuzeti na dugoročne ugovore, neke posjeduju), ali jednako tako imaju čak 30-ak novogradnji na narudžbi (većina stiže 2009-2011, među njima ima i dosta capesizeova). Možda je problem NM što su preuranjeno krenuli u ogromnu kupovinu, pa se postavlja pitanje isplativosti. Slično kao i kod DRYS-a, postoji veći rizik za natprosječni pad, ali i za natprosječnu dobit. Ovdje nisu upitni dugoročni ugovori sami po sebi već velik broj novogradnji koje treba tek isfinancirati. Također, čak polovica flote dobija nove ugovore iduće godine pa se važe hoće li biti dovoljno unosni…
Svejedno mislim da je debelo podcijenjena dionica.

kamo god da idu vozarine, u ATPL na kraju 2008. da požele mogu i otići na kolektivni odmor od 5 godina i zarađivati po 0 kuna godisnje i još uvijek bi nakon tih 5 godina samo od ovogodišnje dobiti imali prosjecni godisnji P/E bolji nego recimo "potcijenjena" INA na vrhuncu naftnog bull marketa. [lol]

a ako ipak i u 2009. odrade do kraja stare ugovore i prodaju naručene brodove, bila bi to još koja godina fore više.

a da bi se izjednačili s nekim drugima trebalo bi uračunati više neradnih godina nego što će većina nas uopće još poživjeti.

BDI futuresi za početnu točku uzimaju trenutno stanje BDI kao i trenutnu ekonomsku situaciju i naravno da su predviđanja loša za 4Q ako se barata samo najsvježijim podacima koji su dostupni (za prošli i ovaj mjesec).

Ali ukoliko se uzme procjena koliko će Kinezi uvesti željezne rudače do kraja svoje industrijske ekspanzije (uključujući mogući raspon brodova na ponudi za prijevoz tog tereta), dakle ukupnu potražnju i ponudu, futuresi bi morali izgledati sasvim drugačije i mnogo pozitivnije od trenutno prikazanih.

Baš zbog navedenog su upravo ovih dana optuživani trejderi futuresima da su oni dobrim dijelom krivi za dramatičan pad BDI-a. Obzirom da se na ovu trgovinu nije odnosila zabrana short-sellinga, a u trejdanju s FFA su bile uključene i neke američke investicijske banke (svi znamo kako su prošle), ekscesivnom prodajom izvedenica je također poduprto rušenje BDI indeksa.
Baš lijepo zar ne?

Previše se barata izrazom BDI, a da se ni ne zna šta on predstavlja. Ali evo da governor ne izgubi živce ja ću biti malo detaljniji u objašnjenju…

BDI predstavlja nekoliko stvari u jednom izračunu:

1) neposredno predstavlja trenutni omjer potražnje i ponude brodova (određenog kapaciteta)
2) posredno predstavlja trenutni omjer potražnje i ponude rasutog tereta koji se prevozi (ugljen, rudača, žitarice, itd)
3) a obzirom na prethodno rečeno, može poslužiti i kao trenutni indikator opsega proizvodnje (gotovih proizvoda koji se dobivaju iz ovih sirovina – struja, čelik, hrana) odnosno kao trenutni pokazatelj ekonomskih aktivnosti i ekonomskog stanja općenito.

Zajednička riječ za sva 3 objašnjenja je: trenutno. Ono što znači ´trenutno´ uopće ne znači ´buduće´.

Koliki su utjecaji promjene svakog od pojedinog faktora koji determinira BDI:

Obzirom da je ponuda brodovima teško i sporo podložna promjenama (jer je potrebno duže vremena za izgradnju i dostavu broda, cca 2 godine), minimalni trenutni pomaci u njihovoj potražnji mogu raditi prilično veliki utjecaj na BDI. Kao što je i sada situacija.

Jednako tako uslijed izraženijih promjena na ekonomskom planu dolazi do veće ili manje potrebe za gotovim proizvodom, odnosno posljedično sirovinom. Zbog toga ni ne čudi što je BDI djelomično odraz stanja globalne ekonomije. Drugim riječima, promjenom (ili čak predviđanjem promjene) ekonomskog razvoja se BDI također može značajnije mijenjati. Kao što je i sada situacija.

Grafički prikazano, ako usporedimo kretanje vrijednosti BDI u usporedbi s industrijskim Dow Jones indeksom (DJIA) unazad 5 godina, primjetit ćemo interesantnu korelaciju. Pad ekonomskog rasta ili loše vijesti na ekonomskom planu (odgovara očekivano smanjenoj proizvodnji i potrošnji čelika) se ocrtava i kroz pad industrijskog DJIA indeksa, odnosno pad BDI-a, i obrnuto, u stanju većeg ekonomskog rasta ili pozitivnijih vijesti na ekonomskom planu (očekivana povećana proizvodnja i potrošnja čelika), povećava se vrijednost DJIA indeksa, te raste BDI. (graf u prilogu)

Ovu poveznicu nisam ja izmislio, već su isto ranije neki analitičari primjetili, nekoliko godina prije ovog booma, sugerirajući da je BDI također vođen trenutnim stanjem ekononije u globalu. Međutim izgleda da je trenutno BDI postao sinonim za kinesku aktivnost.

Tu je u i igri nevjerojatna pohlepa i tvrdoglavost rudarskih kompanija, koje i dalje traže povećanje cijene rude, unatoč padu cijene čelika.

Shipping costs plunge on iron stand-off
Saturday, 27 September 2008
Worries about the world economy have combined with a stand-off between ore producers and steel mills to send the key index of dry bulk shipping costs plunging nearly 25 per cent this week. The falls mean the Baltic Dry index – which measures the cost of chartering ships used to carry dry bulk cargoes such as iron ore, coal and wheat – has now lost nearly 70 per cent of its value from the record levels set in May.
The index, which stood at 4,975 points on September 19, closed Friday at 3,746 points. The average day rate to charter a cape size bulk carrier on the spot market stood at $46,162 a day, down from peaks of nearly $240,000 a day. The index lost a record 10 per cent of its value yesterday alone.
Such major fluctuations are typical of dry bulk shipping markets, where small numbers of excess idle ships or small shortages of vessels can send market rates sharply down or up.
Howard Bright, head of dry cargo at London-based Braemar Seascope shiprokers, put the sudden fall down partly to concerns about world economic health and, hence, demand for the commodities shipped in dry bulk ships.
“We’ve now come to the conclusion that none of us is immune from what has been going on in the States and the financial problems going on there,” he said.
He also pointed to Brazilian iron ore exporters’ efforts to win higher prices from Chinese steel mills, which has led to a drying-up of cargoes on the normally busy China-Brazil route.
Ships lying idle off Brazil were willing to accept almost any price for a new charter, he said.
Philippe Van den Abeele, of Castalia, the shipping hedge fund, said there were no (Brazilian) cargoes available and empty ships everywhere.

Source: Financial Times

Shipping Market Sinks Most in 9 Years on Steel Output
Saturday, 27 September 2008
Commodity investors’ expectations for a rebound in shipping rates are collapsing as Chinese steel mills reduce production and economic growth sputters. Shipping investors, analysts and brokers from New York to Oslo cut their forecasts for fourth-quarter rates by 17 percent in three days this week, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The cost to hire a capesize vessel, most commonly used to carry coal and iron ore, will average an estimated $70,000 a day in the period, down from $84,000 forecast at the start of the week.
The price to lease a capesize is falling the most in at least nine years, according to the benchmark Baltic Exchange index. Leasing costs may continue to decline because steelmakers are scaling back production and two of the world’s fastest- growing economies, Russia and China, are slowing based on estimates from the International Monetary Fund and economists surveyed by Bloomberg. ArcelorMittal, the world’s biggest steelmaker, said Sept. 17 it could cut output 15 percent in Europe and the U.S. to support prices.
“It will just keep going down from here,” said London- based Andreas Vergottis, the research director at shipping hedge fund Tufton Oceanic Ltd. who correctly predicted the plunge a month ago. Prices won’t “find resistance” until they’ve fallen about another 50 percent, he said Sept. 23.
Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Ltd., Japan’s largest operator of iron- ore ships, dropped 6.3 percent to its lowest in almost two years in Tokyo. China Cosco Holdings Co., the world’s largest operator of dry-bulk ships, fell 11 percent in Hong Kong trading.
Rates Tumble
Capesize rental rates tumbled 80 percent since reaching a record on June 5 of $233,988 a day on London’s Baltic Exchange. The price fell 12 percent to $46,162 a day today, its biggest one-day decline since June 12. The broader Baltic Dry Index, a measure that also includes smaller ship sizes, fell the most in at least 23 years today.
China’s steelmakers, which account for one in every three tons of the metal made globally, are at the center of the collapse. Mills that shut to curb pollution during the Olympics in Beijing haven’t reopened, leaving the nation’s stockpiles of iron ore, used to make steel and the single biggest commodity carried by capesizes, close to a record.
China imported 23 percent more iron ore in the first eight months from a year ago, according to customs data.
Traders who bet on a rebound in iron-ore demand after the Olympics underestimated the scale of the stockpiles by as much as a third, shipping investor Nobu Su, chief executive officer of Taipei-based TMT Co. Ltd., said in an interview Sept. 15.
Slower Growth
Forward freight agreements for the fourth quarter declined as much as 42 percent since he spoke.
A global economic slowdown is spreading from the U.S. to Europe and Japan, International Monetary Fund First Deputy Managing Director John Lipsky said Sept. 9. The IMF yesterday cut its forecast for Russian growth to 7.1 percent from 7.8 percent. China’s economy will expand 10 percent this year, down from 11.9 percent last year, according to a survey of economists by Bloomberg.
Chinese steel production expanded 1.3 percent in August, the lowest rate in at least four years, according to the Brussels- based International Iron & Steel Institute.
Cia. Vale do Rio Doce, the world’s largest iron-ore producer, has slowed shipments to China after steelmakers rejected a price increase, the China Iron and Steel Association said this month. Should that stand-off end, demand for capesize vessels will rebound.

`No Interest’
Shipping Brazilian iron ore to China is the single biggest component of global demand for capesizes, based on distance multiplied by the amount of cargo, according to Simpson, Spence & Young Ltd., the world’s second-largest shipbroker.
Chinese steelmakers “have shown no interest” in reopening plants because of “languid” demand from customers such as carmakers and builders, Bank of America Corp. analysts Michael Pak and James Lee said in a Sept. 22 report. Demand from China may also be hindered by National Day holidays that run for a week from Sept. 29.
The price of hot-rolled coil steel in southern China dropped 17 percent from a June peak, according to data from Metal Bulletin, a price and news service.
“It’s going to be pretty tough unless the steel price recovers,” said Omar Nokta, an analyst at Dahlman Rose & Co. in New York. Iron-ore demand is in “disarray,” he said.
Steelmakers in China account for half of global iron-ore imports, according to Simpson, Spence. Iron ore represents almost a third of all so-called dry-bulk cargo shipped, data from Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd. show.
Sap Earnings
Lower rates will likely sap earnings for the 12 members of the Bloomberg Dry Ships Index, led by Seoul-based STX Pan Ocean Co., South Korea’s largest bulk-shipping line. The index is down 53 percent from this year’s peak in May.
The $14,000-a-day cut in the forecasts from the survey translates into about $400 million of earnings evaporating in the fourth quarter, based on half the global capesize fleet operating in the spot market.
“The steel industry has ended the period of high growth in production and demand,” Baosteel Group Corp. Chairman Xu Lejiang said Sept. 18. “Steel demand is not good, and we are facing falling orders from our customers.”

Source: Alaric Nightingale, Bloomberg