nema ništa loše u drukanju, dejtrejdanju….ako se pri tome ne pravi budale od ostalih forumaša koji to čitamo

ne znam da li je itko ovo objavio ali evo malo kontradikcija o kineskim zalihama:

http://www.platou.com/loadfileservlet/loadfiledb?id=1220513625515PUBLISHER&key=1220513652312

Čini mi se da su oni koji izlaze na ovim razinama zbog pada BDI-a zbilja kratkog pamćenja a evo i zašto:

Dryshippers: A Buy or a Sell?
by: Stephen Rosenman posted on: September 09, 2008 | about stocks: DRYS / DSX / GNK

The Baltic Dry Index has had a sickening collapse this month. The largest of its vessel class, Cape size vessels, for instance, has dropped from $235,000 a day in June to approximately $80,000 a day this September. The whole fleet of drybulk shippers has sunk with the index: Dryships (DRYS), Genco (GNK), Diana Shipping (DSX) to name a few. Looking at the BCI (Baltic Cape Index) looks like a treacherous ski slope.

Is this the time to buy or sell the dry bulk shipping stocks?

If you believe we are entering a prolonged global recession, it may be time to bail.

I’m not so sure. Historically, large and fast drops of the BDI and BCI are often followed by rapid rises. One has to look no further back than last November when the BCI was at $190,000 and then fell to $80,000 in January only to recover (and then some) to $235,000. It’s a very volatile index. That last drop was due to China and the miners haggling over iron prices. The ensuing recovery unleashed an extraordinary pent up demand for shipped dry bulk goods and tripled charter prices.

This time the indexes appear to be dropping once again because the Chinese are not buying. They appear to be holding off, instead living off inventories built up in preparation for the Olympics. China is a country which must import iron and coal to support its growth. If history is any guide, China will bring in commodities once again, driving up the BDI and BCI and boosting dry bulk shippers.

Of all the times of the year, September thru November has consistently seen rises in the BCI. During that period in 2003, the BCI rose 100%; in 2004, 17%; in 2005, 40%; in 2006, 7% ; in 2007, 60%. If the index follows this pattern, Cape prices should be much higher by November.

The BDI and BCI are explosive. They reflect the ever changing supply and demand on vessels trading on the spot market. The individual dry bulk shippers, for the most part, charter their vessels out 2 to 3 years, even 5 to 10 years, to avoid the frequent ups and downs of spot market. GNK, for example, has most of its ships tied to long charters that will not be exposed to the vagaries of this current BDI down turn. The shippers lock in favorable long term charters to avoid the tos and fros of the spot market but the traders treat their stocks as if they were completely exposed to the BDI. However, for the reasons above, the BDI and BCI should turn up, and perhaps, explosively so over the next 2 to 3 months.

SPOT $4.893,00 $5.026,00 -2,65% http://www.dryships.com/index.cfm?get=report

evo FFA futersa za BDI jučer je došlo do preokreta

BDI SEP08 $5.400,00 $5.250,00 2,86%
BDI OCT08 $6.325,00 $6.000,00 5,42%
BDI Q408 $6.700,00 $6.200,00 8,06%
BDI Q109 $6.300,00 $6.000,00 5,00%
BDI Q209 $6.100,00 $5.800,00 5,17%
BDI Q309 $5.600,00 $5.350,00 4,67%
BDI CAL09 $5.600,00 $5.400,00 3,70%
BDI CAL10 $4.300,00 $4.150,00 3,61%

Pozdrav

ma di si ti vidio da je došlo do preokreta ???

http://www.dryships.com/index.cfm?get=report

Dobar početak danas, nadam se da nije navlakuša.

nekom je osvanulo danas lijepo…dosta je toga prošlo jučer na 2050…nažalost ja nisam jedan od tih

Meni se ovo čini da fondovi kupuju, njima je ATPL perjanica i prva je na braniku. U zadnjih par dana se likvidnost povećala što znači da se lagano mirovinci i otvoreni uključuju u igru.

Milja prometa po asku u prvih 20 minuta. Dobar znak.