Oporavak CROBEX-a

Sukladno dobrom raspoloženju inozemnih tržišta, jutros je konačno okončana negativna petodnevna serija CROBEX-a, koji je porastao za 0,4 posto, uz solidni promet od 23 milijuna kuna.

http://www.net.hr/novac/page/2008/09/08/0263006.html

BDIjevac = Bad Dirty Imbecil

Bratoljub Klaić

BDI

5492

..Ovo si dobro rekao…veliki se igraju između sebe i samo oni znaju u kom će smjeru cijena.[/quote]dobro reko, a dobio komad! članovi foruma nisu nešto ljubazni
[cry]

Where is the Baltic Dry Index headed?
Monday, 08 September 2008
The Baltic Dry Index, the most widely quoted measure of shipping demand, has fallen by over 50% since its late-May highs (20 May), moving from 11,800 points to less than 5,874; the lowest level since late January. The recent setbacks have included 200-point and 320-point retreats in the last two trading sessions, respectively. Those associating the Olympic Games in China with the drop of the index didn’t take into account that this was only a partial reason, that couldn’t have negative effects by its own. Industrial activity in China
was put in a halt from June onwards, reducing the number of cargoes available, thus adding pressure to the BDI. But, with production slowly resuming and expected to fully come into place by mid-September, rates keep falling. The Capsize average time charter rate was USD 85,862 per day by the end of the week, down by USD 8,163. The average time charter rate has now lost a massive USD 148,126 since it hit an all time high of USD 233,988 per day on June 6th 2008.
The dry bulk markets have tumbled in all sectors as a lack of fresh inquires, particularly from China, have failed to absorb an excess of tonnage.
The drop in the global benchmark for the cost of shipping commodities such as iron ore and grains came amid a slowdown in global economic activity and a broad sell-off of commodities, conditions that, as was expected, had their direct impact in the chartering activity and as a result, on the index itself. FT reported that, quoting comments from Peter Norfolk, of London-based shipbrokers Simpson Spence and Young, who said the market was experiencing a “real slowdown in chartering activity”.
Speaking to Hellenic Shipping News, Mr. George Grigoriadis, financial analyst for George Moundreas & Co. said that the fundamentals of the global economy are to be blamed for the drop in freight rates. “We’ve been witnessing a drop in consumption activity and investment, with Eurostat also saying that the growth in investment activity throughout Europe has been curbed”, Mr. Grigoriadis said. He went on to state that demand for iron and steel from China has slowed down in the recent weeks, which will continue to add pressure to shipping rates, a trend not likely to change, at least for the following weeks.
But Mr. Norfolk and others said they expected a rebound in freight costs later this year.
In the Forward Freight Agreements over-the-counter futures market, prices for December are above current spot quotes, suggesting charterers are expecting a rebound, although not back to the levels that were reached in May. James Leake, of Icap Shipping, said the recent fall in the Baltic Dry was not the end of a booming period for the sector. “We forecast a rebound in freight costs from November onwards on higher imports to China and a seasonal bounce back in grain activity in the Atlantic basin,” he said.
Going forward, 2009 is expected to be a turning point for the market with many analysts predicting that a downward cycle of the booming sector, in terms of freight rates. This is attributed to the huge increase of tonnage expected with a series of new buildings gradually coming into the market, product of the unprecedented ordering activity made during 2006 and 2007. Mr. Grigoriadis said that in 2009, the increase of dry bulk tonnage is estimated to reach 9% – 10%, when the relevant rise on global trade isn’t expected to surpass a 4% – 5%, causing a huge gap between demand and supply. This in turn will be directly reflected in freight rates.

But even if the worst-case scenario comes true and freight rates plunge to even more significant depths, the market has ways of altering the situation. The most notable lies in the ageing fleet of dry bulkers, with hundreds of ships now being over 25 years old and staying in service, because they keep earning good money to their owners. Once this stops, it’s more than certain that a growing number of these vessels will be headed for demolition. Of course, the impact of this, won’t be felt right away in the market, but in the middle term, rates will start climbing back again, as the balance between supply and demand will gradually be reinstated.

Svakako je dobro da je ATPL uvalila stare krame za dobru cijenu. U pravom trenutku ja bi reko.

odlično, samo što će biti sa novima?
prvo sam mislio kupiti, ali nakon što je zmrklic postao ovo dolje, razmišljam treba li uopće kupiti, hm?

2009 is expected to be a turning point for the market with many analysts predicting that a downward cycle of the booming sector, in terms of freight rates. This is attributed to the huge increase of tonnage expected with a series of new buildings gradually coming into the market, product of the unprecedented ordering activity made during 2006 and 2007.

Mr. Grigoriadis said that in 2009, the increase of dry bulk tonnage is estimated to reach 9% – 10%, when the relevant rise on global trade isn’t expected to surpass a 4% – 5%, causing a huge gap between demand and supply. This in turn will be directly reflected in lower freight rates.

Novi će veselo ploviti još dugi niz godina, da bi nama dioničarima donijeli lijepu dobit u budućnosti.

Pitanje novopridošlim (i nekim starim ulagačima): jel vi kupujete ili prodajete dionice ATPL radi BDI-a?

Da li svaka vaša računica potječe od BDI-a?

Pratite malo kako se ugovaraju brodovi ovih dana.
Zadnji ugovoren t/c (početkom rujna 2008) za jedan handymax na 4 godine iznosi čak 38.000$/d. Zašto kažem čak?
Do 2007.g ovakav ugovor je bio praktički nezamisliv, jer se 3 y t/c za handymax kretao oko 20-ak tisuća dolara maksimalno! A prosječno je iznosio oko 15.000$/d.

Znači lijepo ovaj brodić piči za 38 tisućica do 2012.g.
A da je nekim slučajem ATPL ugovorila 3-yr ugovor nekom handymaxu u razdoblju 2005.-2006. godine (a mislim da je) teško da je mogla dobiti bar upola navedene cijene (19.000$/d).
A da je nekim slučajem ugovorila 5-yr ugovor u 2003. teško da je mogla dobiti cijenu od 10.000$/d.

I da sad netko kaže da nekih 38.000$/d x 4 neće puno vrijediti za godinu dana, a u odnosu na 19.000$ x 3…

Pa da upravo sad iz Uprave izrenoviraju sve ugovore za svoje handymaxe na 3-5 godina živili bi ko bubreg u loju dok se fantaziraju kojekakve priče…

Eh, da, to ne piše u BDI-u…

Navios Maritime je kupio dva capea, 181,000 dwt svaki. Isporuka Q2 i Q3, cijena $108,5m i $109m.

Kako je Atlantska kupila cape iste nosivosti (istina, s isporukom u Q4), cijena bi trebala biti tu negdje.

http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/09-08-2008/0004880416