Polako. Da koji dan i odstojimo na ovim razinama nema frke. Ne zaboravite kolega da smo jos u ponedjeljak bili na 2900

Današnje zatvaranje:

ne zaboravimo da sam ja na zadovoljstvo svih nas i jeftinijeg dokupa udarao po 2983 sa jednom dionicom u petak
[smiley2]
nazalost, nije proslo, morao sam dokupiti po skuplje, ali nije mi zao[smiley2]

jel zna netko mozda od upućenijih kad bi se uprava trebala oglasiti o novim planovima?
i ima li ista od toga?

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=DRYS

Zanimljive brojke. DryShips dionica je unatrag godinu dana rasla 650%! Brojke su impresivne. P/E mu je 16, a FP/E 9. P/S 10.

Možemo li napraviti usporedbu s peer grupom?

Sta mislite, hoce li ATPL malo pasti u petak ako bude velika potraznja za THT-om? Pa kad u petak ili ponedjeljak nestane povoljnih prodaja THT-a (ako ih uopce bude) mozda se tek onda nastave kupovine ATPL na nacin “ne pitam za cijenu”?
Odnosno, mislio sam dokupiti sutra ATPL pa nesto razmisljam je li petak bolji za kupovinu? Sta mislite?

Ententinis: Gospodo ne zaboravite da nam novi brod iz Južne Koreje stiže do 12. ovog mjeseca.
Znamo šta će to značiti za cijenu dionice

Ja bih rekao da taj ocekivani brod upravo odradjuje ovaj najnoviji porast cijene.

Znam, ali se nadam da je netko od vas to već radio s ATPL

Wall Street Transcript
Dry Bulk Vessels Demand Accelerates in Wall Street Transcript Marine Transportation Report
Wednesday October 3, 9:11 am ET

67 WALL STREET, New York–October 1, 2007–The Wall Street Transcript has just published its Marine Transportation issue, a report offering a timely review of the sector to serious investors and industry executives. This 21-page feature contains expert industry commentary through in-depth interviews with top management from 1 firm and 3 analysts. The full issue is available by calling (212) 952-7433 or via The Wall Street Transcript Online.
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Topics covered: The dry bulk shipping industry, The catalyst for tanker demand, Crude oil shipping, Supply visibility, High activity in the M&A Sector, Expansion in the Chinese market, Conversion of oil tankers, Unexpected changes in the trade sector, Port Congestion, The shift to individual investors, Stock Picks, Stocks to Avoid.

Companies include: Seaspan (SSW), Danaos (DAC), Genco (GNK), Navios (NM), Eagle (EGLE), Diana (DSX), Overseas Shipholding Group (OSG), Teekay (TK), TORM (TRMD), Frontline (FRO), Excel Maritime (EXM), Euroseas (ESEA), General Maritime (GMR), Kirby (KEX), DryShips (DRYS), and Tsakos Energy Navigation (TNP). Analysts Include: Urs Dur, Lazard Capital Management; Charles W. Rupinski, Maxim Group LLC; Douglas Mavrinac, Jefferies & Companies, Inc.

In the following brief excerpt from the 21-page report, Douglas Mavrinac of Jefferies & Company, Inc. discusses the outlook for the sector and for investors.

[color=blue]TWST: On the dry bulk side, what’s going to happen over the next 18 or 24 months? [/color]

Mr. Mavrinac: Looking over the next 12 months, I would say that we should expect more of the same. When we look at new iron ore production projects coming on line, we see significant new capacity being added later this year approximately 60 million tons per annum of new capacity in Australia. Then looking ahead to the first half of 2008, another 50 million to 55 million tons per annum will be added of new capacity, with half of that being added in Australia and the other half being added in Brazil. We anticipate demand for dry bulk shipping to remain robust for the next 12 months and supply growth to remain in check, more or less implying that rates should continue to set all-time highs over the next few months.

Looking out beyond 12 months, I would say that the visibility becomes less clear. You have a significant ramp up in iron ore production capacity planned. Once you start talking 12 months out, the timing of those startups for those projects can always change, which is why we typically don’t try to look too, too far out.

[color=blue]TWST: With all these new supplies coming on, is the demand there to absorb what is being added to the marketplace? [/color]

Mr. Mavrinac: Yes. In fact, the demand specifically from China has been so significant that it has outpaced the mining companies’ abilities to increase the supplies. You are talking about significant quantities of new supplies hitting the market, new iron ore, new coal, and the price of iron ore has doubled over the past three years. It’s increased 71.5% three years ago, 19% two years ago, and 9.5% this past year. They have been unable to keep up with demand. When you look ahead over the next year at forecasts by institutions like the International Iron and Steel Institute, it’s anticipated that the projected new production capacity coming on line, the new supplies being added, will still be insufficient to meet demand and that iron ore prices are likely to increase further.

[color=blue]TWST: What’s the outlook for capacity? [/color]

Mr. Mavrinac: As far as new ships entering the market?

[color=blue]TWST: Yes. [/color]

Mr. Mavrinac: That’s what makes this such a nice market. If you place an order for a ship today, you would be lucky to see it delivered in 2009 and more likely in 2010. Given that high barrier to entry, you have very good visibility for what fleet growth is likely to be. It is anticipated to slow in each of the next couple of years, primarily because the shipyards will still be delivering crude tankers, containerships and vessels in those asset classes. The supply response will likely not be able to be increased until 2010 or 2011. You are seeing orders for dry bulk ships placed for each of those years, but that’s still a few years away.

[color=blue]TWST: What’s the risk in the story? [/color]

Mr. Mavrinac: I would say the near-term risk near-term being over the next 12 months would be more on the demand side because of that supply visibility. That would have to be something like a demand shock, something that’s not really foreseen. It would have to be a pretty significant economic slowdown globally for the dry bulk market to be significantly impacted because of the pent-up demand for some of these commodities. Also on the demand side, if there are any startup delays with some of these new iron ore projects scheduled to come online, that could be a problem. On the demand side, I think that would be where more of your risk lies over the next 12 months.

Beyond 12 months, say second half of 2008 or 2009, I would say that those demand risks are persistent risks. You could see some potential supply growth risk in late 2008. I mentioned that shipyards are filled practically into 2009, but you are seeing some other types of ships being sold for conversions to dry bulk vessels because of how profitable it is right now to operate a dry bulk ship. The last reports are that between 25 and 30 very large crude carriers old single – hull vessels that would likely be phased out due to the IMO phase – out deadline affecting the tanker market being sold for conversions to dry bulk ships. You should start seeing the impact of that in the second half of 2008.
[color=blue]
TWST: Given this bright outlook, are we likely to see more M&A activity in the space? [/color]

Mr. Mavrinac: We think most definitely. It has been a very active sector for M&A activity. Over the past month, you’ve seen two separate $1.1 billion acquisitions, with some of the public companies acquiring private assets. You will likely see more of that because it remains a very fragmented industry with the public guys receiving premium valuations over the private companies and private assets. They can do transactions that are very accretive to earnings. Also, when you look at the returns on capital, the returns are still very, very attractive in the 15% to 20% neighborhood on these investments. Given

Given those returns, the fragmented nature of the industry, and the relative valuations of the public companies versus the private companies, I think that you will continue to see consolidation take place.

[color=blue]TWST: Is it going to be more of what we’ve seen with the publics taking over the smaller privates? [/color]

Mr. Mavrinac: Yes, I think so.

[color=blue]TWST: As you talk with investors, what’s the interest level in this space? [/color]

Mr. Mavrinac: I would say it is exceptionally high. It has been high for the better part of this year. In fact, many investors wonder how much could be left. Some think, “I missed the boat, so to speak. How much potentially is left in some of these names?” I would say it’s because of the performance of the shares; when you have a name like DryShips (DRYS) that’s up 300% year to date, naturally that draws a lot of attention.

[color=blue]TWST: What are you telling investors to do in this space at this point? [/color]

Mr. Mavrinac: We think that it’s full steam ahead. When you look at the fundamental outlook that we’ve laid out, with rates anticipated to continue rising, we think that there is further upside in many of these names. One name that I just highlighted, DryShips, has 26 vessels operating on charter contracts that expire later this year. If they are expiring in a rising rate environment, we think that that would provide upside to existing estimates, given where estimates are on the Street versus the physical charter market.

[color=blue]TWST: Are there any names that you like at this point or is it too early? [/color]

Mr. Mavrinac: We have a couple of names that we are recommending as buys in the crude oil shipping sector. One of those names would be Overseas Shipholding Group (OSG). That company has some exposure to rising OPEC production with its VLCC fleet, but they also have a very diverse fleet. They have a fleet of product tankers that are more or less on time charters that provide a stable level of earnings and cash flow going forward. They get the upside from rising VLCC rates. That would be a function of rising OPEC production. We think they are well positioned. They have a very strong balance sheet and share repurchase program in place. They also have the potential positive catalyst of spinning off their US Jones Act fleet into an MLP, which could be a positive for the company if that gets a better valuation than it’s receiving under OSG right now. We like OSG.

Another name that we like is Tsakos Energy Navigation (TNP). Tsakos also has a diverse fleet. They have many vessels on time charter contracts with lower rates, but also with profit-sharing arrangements. Their downside is somewhat limited, but they get to participate in the upside. Tsakos also, unlike many of the crude oil tanker companies, has many vessels that are going to be delivered over this next year that are well in the money based on what they paid for those assets. When we look at valuation, Tsakos shares are trading at a 30% to 40% discount to its net asset value, and that doesn’t even include those in-the-money newbuildings that are going to be delivered. If we were to get involved, those are two names that we have as buy-rated stocks that we think could be interesting.

ne bih se složio.
mislim da BDI ima najveći utjecaj na ovo i globalnio raspoloženje investitora na cijene vozarina .
ova sa novim brodom treba tek doći, pa FI itd.